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End in sight for persistent Central US downpours

By Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Updated Jun 30, 2021 9:06 AM EDT

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Residents from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes have been hard-pressed to find a dry day over the past week. A stagnant weather pattern has resulted in days of downpours and flooding, but AccuWeather meteorologists say a much-needed change is on the way right in time for the July Fourth holiday weekend.

Oklahoma City has been one of the soggier locales over the past few days, picking up nearly 6 inches of rain since June 26. Normally, the metro area would pick up just shy of 5 inches of rainfall for the entire month of June.

Other major metro areas such as St. Louis, Chicago and Detroit are also running precipitation surpluses for June following frequent rainy days during the second half of the month.

On Wednesday, forecasters expect more of the same in terms of the weather pattern across the region. Flash flood watches remained in effect for much of this corridor through Tuesday evening.

A nearly stationary frontal boundary will continue to produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms from the central and southern Plains to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys.

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely to remain the most common hazards, though localized gusty winds cannot be ruled out in any thunderstorm.

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"The greatest flood threat will be from Oklahoma and Kansas northeastward to Michigan on Wednesday, where rainfall has exceeded 6 inches in some places over the last week," Roys said.

Motorists will need to continue to use caution on the roadways as heavy rainfall can lead to pooling of water and a heightened risk of hydroplaning at highway speeds. Experts remind drivers to avoid flooded roadways altogether.

An additional 1-3 inches of rainfall are possible from the south-central Plains to the Mississippi and Ohio valleys through Wednesday. Locally higher amounts can occur in heavier thunderstorms and where downpours repeat.

With the ground already saturated and many rivers in the region running high, any additional rainfall can quickly lead to new or worsening flooding problems.

Portions of the Blackwater, Illinois, Missouri, Neosho and Sangamon rivers are in or expected to crest at major flood stage, according to National Weather Service hydrologists.

Forecasters do have some good news for residents itching to get outside and exercise or complete yard work and farmers eager for their fields to dry out.

"The frontal boundary should finally move south and east of the area later this week, shifting the flooding threat to the Ohio River and Tennessee Valley and allowing for drier weather farther north," Roys said.

Downpours are likely to be shoved farther south across the Central states from Thursday to Friday as an area of high pressure moves in. The latest indications point toward this high continuing to dominate the weather heading into the weekend, which could result in a rather dry July Fourth across much of the nation's midsection.

The Gulf Coast states and portions of the Eastern Seaboard could be the main areas where holiday plans could be dampened by downpours.

SEE ALSO:

‘Crazy hot’: Seattle shatters all-time high-temperature record
Texas hailstone confirmed as largest ever in state
‘Mega comet’ 60 miles wide is about to fly through the solar system

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.

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