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Dry weather across parts of Europe spoiled by slow-moving Mediterranean storm

By Mary Gilbert, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Sep 8, 2020 2:18 PM EDT

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As gusty winds swept through Big Pine Key, Florida, on Sept. 5, a waterspout spun up. Wind gusts at the time were upwards of 35 mph.

A dry and fairly tranquil end of the week is forecast for much of western and central Europe, but parts of the Mediterranean region will be the exception to this pattern due to the formation of a slow-moving storm system.

Aside from a few brief showers from a cold front that will swing through northern France, Germany and Poland into Thursday, a few strategic areas of high pressure located around Europe will help keep sunny and rain-free days in the forecast this week. High pressure will remain in place off the coast of western France, over northern Italy and over the Black Sea into Thursday.

After a lengthy stretch of rather dry conditions previous to this week, some areas in and along the Mediterranean Sea are in for multiple days of soggy weather.

"A slow-moving storm system developing over the western Mediterranean through the rest of the week will bring rounds of storms to places such as Ibiza and Barcelona," AccuWeather Meteorologist Isaac Longley said.

This slow-moving system will be able to draw from an abundance of warm, moist air to fuel itself. With such deep reserves of moisture, some of the storms that develop as a result of this system can become heavy in nature.

"Some of these storms will be on the heavy side, possibly leading to localized flash flooding in areas," Longley added.

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A few locations, including Spain’s Balearic Islands, have already felt the impacts of this slow-moving system. As of Tuesday afternoon, local time, Ibiza had recorded 2.41 inches (61.2 mm) of rain since Monday. This deluge of rain is actually double the typical amount of rain Ibiza receives for the entire month of September, about 1.20 inches (30 mm).

By midweek, high pressure over northern Italy will begin to lose its grip on the region. This lack of high pressure will allow the system in the western Mediterranean to slowly progress east and into the central Mediterranean later this week.

From Thursday into Friday, the storm system will spread locally heavy rain across the islands of Sardinia and Corsica, according to Longley.

"As much as 1-3 inches (25-75 mm) of rain can be expected from the heaviest storms," he said.

Along with a rain threat, a handful of storms this week will have the ability to become severe in nature and produce damaging wind gusts and hail in addition to heavy rain. Even the development of a few waterspouts cannot be ruled out for areas impacted by storms through midweek.  

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A few storms may also develop during the end of the week across western Italy, but these will not have the same potency as storms farther to the west.

After bringing impacts to the central Mediterranean through late in the week, this slow-moving system will begin to lose intensity into the weekend as it tracks closer to Sicily. A few showers can develop across Sicily and southern Italy Saturday into Sunday, but the threat for any flooding rain will be relatively low as the system loses steam.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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