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Dallas could break record for warmest Christmas Day ever

High temps will soar more than 20 degrees above normal in Dallas and Houston could also see a record fall on Christmas Day. AccuWeather forecasters break down how far north the warm weather will reach.

By John Murphy, AccuWeather staff writer

Published Dec 20, 2021 2:14 PM EDT | Updated Dec 22, 2021 7:33 AM EDT

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Record warmth has been a common occurrence around the country this December and, with Christmas approaching, it will be a recurring theme right through the holiday across the Southeast and south-central United States. Some parts of Texas, including big cities like Dallas and Houston, could see temperatures reach all-time highs for Christmas Day.

The week began with seasonable temperatures for much of the south-central U.S., but the real heat will roll in just in time for Christmas Eve and into Christmas as a high-pressure system becomes centered over the Southeast and a storm moves in and spins over the northern Rockies.

"Due to the position of these two systems, very warm air originating from Mexico will be pulled northward into the south-central U.S., leading to the record-breaking weather," AccuWeather Meteorologist Isaac Longley said.

The warm weather will stick around for a couple of days, lasting into Christmas Day across the South Central states with high pressure anchored over the Gulf of Mexico.

Several cities in the south-central U.S. experienced their warmest Christmas on record just several years ago. For much of the region, Dec. 25 was warm in both 2015 and 2016 with many records for the date still standing from one of those years, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

On Dec. 25, 2016, Dallas reached 80 degrees, which broke the record for warmest Christmas Day on record in the city.

"Meanwhile, temperatures soared to 76 in Nashville, Tennessee, and to 73 in Oklahoma City and set records that same day in 2016," Sosnowski said. Just a year earlier, in 2015, New Orleans climbed to a record high mark of 82 degrees on Dec. 25, while Houston set a record of 83 and Atlanta established a new Christmas daily record high of 75.

It could once again be time to rewrite the record books in at least some of these locations.

This year, AccuWeather is predicting Dallas to reach 83 degrees on Christmas Day, which would break the record high. On Christmas Eve, the city is forecast to reach the low 80s. Many other cities may find their Dec. 25 record high in jeopardy this year. Temperatures in Houston are also forecast to top Saturday's record high. New Orleans may come close to its record with a high of 79 forecast.

Records are not expected to be broken in Nashville and Atlanta, but highs are forecast to be within a few degrees of 70, which is about 15-20 degrees above average.

"While officially the warmth late this week will stop short of summerlike levels, it may feel that way with temperature departures of 15-25 degrees and even 30 degrees above average, which is more typical of early October in some cases," Sosnowski said.

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Since there are no signs of major intrusions of cold air to reach the South-Central states through the end of the month, this December could be the warmest on record for a number of locations. "Dallas has been experiencing temperatures of nearly 11 degrees above average for the first 20 days of the month and is highly likely to top its all-time warmest December by several degrees," AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins said.

The warmest December on record at Dallas was in 2015 with an average temperature of 53.6 degrees. Thus far, December 2021 has been averaging 59.3 degrees, which is higher than last month's average of 57.7 degrees.

Holiday travel could still be impacted despite the forecast of warm and dry weather. The setup will also bring gusty winds along with the dry weather, especially during Christmas Eve. Longley said this combination will bring great concern for fires in addition to dangerous travel conditions.

"The strong winds may also lead to areas of blowing dust, leading to difficult travel at times," said Longley.

A powerful line of storms that swept through the Plains fanned wildfires that destroyed homes and ranches in Kansas on Dec. 15.

Dangerous fires already caused damage to structures in Kansas earlier this month after a dust storm impacted the area. Last week, a fire in the panhandle of Oklahoma caused officials to encourage evacuation of some residents in the city of Guymon.

Several regions of the U.S., in addition to the South Central states, have had their fair share of record warmth already this month. The Northeast experienced record warmth earlier in December, with April-like temperatures being reported throughout the area. On Dec. 11, New York City, Philadelphia and Buffalo, New York, climbed into the mid- to upper 60s, while Washington, D.C., reached 70 the same day. Just last week, temperatures again soared into the 60s in parts of the Northeast on Dec. 16. Buffalo set a daily record high of 64 degrees. One day later, Washington, D.C., set a daily record high of 65 degrees on Dec. 17.

To start the month, some parts of the Rocky Mountain region experienced warmer weather on Dec. 1 than June 1. Denver hit 73 degrees on Dec. 1 and set a record high in the process. The high on June 1 was only 70. In Colorado Springs, Colorado, the high of 69 on Dec. 1 matched the June 1 high.

SEE ALSO:

No snow! Chicago breaks record for latest-ever 1st snowfall
Snow-blasted palm trees and other infamous Christmas weather
Woman's profane reaction to brutal winter left news anchors chuckling

For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform. 

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AccuWeather Weather Forecasts Dallas could break record for warmest Christmas Day ever
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