Chilly, wet weather to frequent Northeast in coming weeks
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Apr 21, 2020 6:03 PM EST
Lacey Way qualified for the Boston Marathon, but due to COVID-19, it was canceled. Instead, she ran a solo race at home in Auburn, Washington, on April 19.
A seemingly quick change in seasons is stirring weather whiplash across the Northeast this week, and forecasters say chilly and unsettled weather is likely to stick around across the region into May.
A southward dip in the jet stream that can trigger cool and generally wet conditions this time of the year will keep re-appearing in the Eastern states over the next two to three weeks.
"The pattern does not look to be as extreme as when a lobe of the polar vortex set up over Hudson Bay earlier this month," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, adding that, "the long-term average through the first part of May is likely to bring below-average temperatures to the Northeast."
Despite the chilly snap earlier this month, temperatures are averaging right around normal in many major cities across the Northeast, including Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Boston and New York City, since the start of spring.
The tail end of the polar vortex pattern contributed to a 2,000-mile long swath of accumulating snow from the Rockies to the coastal Northeast last week. The upcoming pattern can bring some mixed rain and snow showers over the mountains and Great Lakes region, but accumulating snow is not expected to be widespread and snowfall will generally be limited to the highest elevations, with a few exceptions.
Frequent days of cooler-than-average weather are likely to outnumber the milder-than-average days. This, as average temperatures continue to trend upward by a degree every two to three days in most locations.
The weather in the spring is a tug of war between winter and summer, but the overall temperature trend is up.
"Chilly weather in early May may feel a lot different than chilly weather in early or mid-April, especially when the sun is out," Pastelok explained.
For example, a day with a temperature of 5 degrees below average in the first week of May will generally translate to temperatures 10-15 degrees higher than the same pattern in early April.
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"Even though the players in the chilly pattern are changing, the end result is the same and it seems we just can't snap the pattern and allow warmth building in the West this week to sweep eastward with any kind of persistence," Pastelok said.
In addition to below-average temperatures most days into early May, storms will continue to roll along with rounds of rain every one to three days or so.
The rain is not likely to be persistent enough to lead to widespread river flooding, but rainfall can be heavy enough to lead to incidents of flash, urban and small stream flooding. Some rivers that have been hovering at low levels are likely to trend higher over the next couple of weeks, perhaps stopping short of moderate flooding stages.
At the very least, the frequent wet weather and cool conditions will slow evaporation rates, which should allow for good conditions for some yard work like seeding a lawn. On the contrary, conditions could add difficulty for mass, agricultural field work.
Forecasters stress that none of the storms will be exceptionally strong, but that those trying to fit in an outdoor jog or walk while practicing social distancing may have to dodge some rainy spells. The same may be true for some property owners who are trying to accomplish outdoor maintenance or home-improvement projects over the next couple of weeks.
In terms of timing the rain events over the next week or so, one storm system is forecast to push across the region from Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon.
A second storm is scheduled to roll along from Saturday night to Sunday night. So, people seeking outdoor activity may want to consider Saturday instead of Sunday.
The overall track of storms coming into the Northeast may change a bit next week and into early May. But, while the end result may be less steady rainfall, rounds of showers are still likely.
Even moderate storms can produce localized severe weather in the springtime. This is due to the sun warming the lowest levels of the atmosphere, as the upper levels hover near winter cold. These conditions create what meteorologists call a very unstable atmosphere, and the setup can lead to fast-changing weather, including episodes of gusty thunderstorms with hail even in the absence of a vigorous storm system.
The overall pattern into early May is likely to bring these chaotic conditions, despite the overall persistence of chilly air.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Weather Forecasts
Chilly, wet weather to frequent Northeast in coming weeks
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Apr 21, 2020 6:03 PM EST
Lacey Way qualified for the Boston Marathon, but due to COVID-19, it was canceled. Instead, she ran a solo race at home in Auburn, Washington, on April 19.
A seemingly quick change in seasons is stirring weather whiplash across the Northeast this week, and forecasters say chilly and unsettled weather is likely to stick around across the region into May.
A southward dip in the jet stream that can trigger cool and generally wet conditions this time of the year will keep re-appearing in the Eastern states over the next two to three weeks.
"The pattern does not look to be as extreme as when a lobe of the polar vortex set up over Hudson Bay earlier this month," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, adding that, "the long-term average through the first part of May is likely to bring below-average temperatures to the Northeast."
Despite the chilly snap earlier this month, temperatures are averaging right around normal in many major cities across the Northeast, including Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Boston and New York City, since the start of spring.
The tail end of the polar vortex pattern contributed to a 2,000-mile long swath of accumulating snow from the Rockies to the coastal Northeast last week. The upcoming pattern can bring some mixed rain and snow showers over the mountains and Great Lakes region, but accumulating snow is not expected to be widespread and snowfall will generally be limited to the highest elevations, with a few exceptions.
Frequent days of cooler-than-average weather are likely to outnumber the milder-than-average days. This, as average temperatures continue to trend upward by a degree every two to three days in most locations.
The weather in the spring is a tug of war between winter and summer, but the overall temperature trend is up.
"Chilly weather in early May may feel a lot different than chilly weather in early or mid-April, especially when the sun is out," Pastelok explained.
For example, a day with a temperature of 5 degrees below average in the first week of May will generally translate to temperatures 10-15 degrees higher than the same pattern in early April.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
"Even though the players in the chilly pattern are changing, the end result is the same and it seems we just can't snap the pattern and allow warmth building in the West this week to sweep eastward with any kind of persistence," Pastelok said.
In addition to below-average temperatures most days into early May, storms will continue to roll along with rounds of rain every one to three days or so.
The rain is not likely to be persistent enough to lead to widespread river flooding, but rainfall can be heavy enough to lead to incidents of flash, urban and small stream flooding. Some rivers that have been hovering at low levels are likely to trend higher over the next couple of weeks, perhaps stopping short of moderate flooding stages.
Related:
At the very least, the frequent wet weather and cool conditions will slow evaporation rates, which should allow for good conditions for some yard work like seeding a lawn. On the contrary, conditions could add difficulty for mass, agricultural field work.
Forecasters stress that none of the storms will be exceptionally strong, but that those trying to fit in an outdoor jog or walk while practicing social distancing may have to dodge some rainy spells. The same may be true for some property owners who are trying to accomplish outdoor maintenance or home-improvement projects over the next couple of weeks.
In terms of timing the rain events over the next week or so, one storm system is forecast to push across the region from Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon.
A second storm is scheduled to roll along from Saturday night to Sunday night. So, people seeking outdoor activity may want to consider Saturday instead of Sunday.
The overall track of storms coming into the Northeast may change a bit next week and into early May. But, while the end result may be less steady rainfall, rounds of showers are still likely.
Even moderate storms can produce localized severe weather in the springtime. This is due to the sun warming the lowest levels of the atmosphere, as the upper levels hover near winter cold. These conditions create what meteorologists call a very unstable atmosphere, and the setup can lead to fast-changing weather, including episodes of gusty thunderstorms with hail even in the absence of a vigorous storm system.
The overall pattern into early May is likely to bring these chaotic conditions, despite the overall persistence of chilly air.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo