AccuWeather's 2020 South America autumn forecast
By
Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Mar 4, 2020 4:16 PM EDT
AccuWeather’s annual autumn forecast for South America is here, and much of the continent is projected to see summer warmth carry over into the start of the new season.
This widespread warmth paired with a persistent dryness will exacerbate drought concerns across the northern extent of the continent, especially in Colombia and Venezuela.
Take a look at the complete region-by-region breakdown below:
Drought to worsen across Columbia, Venezuela
Drought has been a looming issue for the northern extent of South America in recent years, and the changing of the seasons will not bring much in terms of relief as dry weather persists over the region.
“Drought problems will continue from Venezuela and Colombia to French Guiana as well as parts of Ecuador and coastal Peru,” AccuWeather International Forecasting Manager Jason Nicholls said.
Medellin, Colombia, is one city running well below normal in terms of rainfall. Since the start of December, the city has only received 16 percent of its normal rainfall.
The lack of significant rain will not only take a toll on farmers, but also those who rely on water from area reservoirs.
“The lack of rain and low river levels will continue to cause problems for hydrological generated electricity in Venezuela which can result in continued blackouts,” Nicholls said.
Hydroelectricity is at the center of Venezuela’s power grid and droughts have contributed to widespread blackouts in the past.
With another dry season on tap, eyes will be on the water levels behind the Guri Dam, the site of the country’s largest hydroelectric plant.
The Guri Dam in Venezuela in November 2017, one year after a severe drought struck the country. (Photo/Wikimedia Commons/Warairarepano&Guaicaipuro)
Even though the worst of the drought focuses on the northern coasts of South America, areas farther inland, such as Brazil’s Amazon basin, could still see adverse effects from the dry pattern.
“A drier-than-normal pattern in autumn, which is expected to persist through winter, could lead to a high fire threat again late in 2020,” Nicholls said.
Rain to aid autumn crops for farmers in Brazil
Brazil’s most populated areas, including Brasilia and São Paulo, saw rounds of rain throughout the summer and the wet weather pattern is projected to linger into autumn.
“Growing conditions have been overall favorable across the rest of the Brazilian croplands from Parana on northern to Bahia, Mato Grosso and Goias. These areas should continue to see adequate rains right up until the harvest, so crop yields should be good to excellent," Jason said.
The rainy spells from northeast Brazil into Paraguay and Bolivia will help to limit temperatures in the coming months, making it one of the only areas of South America that can expect near- to below-normal temperatures.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Meanwhile, Brazil’s southern states, as well as areas of Uruguay and Argentina, will need to wait until the second half of the season for the return of wet weather.
“Dry spells [in these areas] will continue through March and likely into April before possibly turning wetter late in the season,” Nicholls said.
This includes Porto Alegre, Brazil; Asuncion, Paraguay; Montevideo, Uruguay; and Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Dry pattern to dominate the autumn for Chile, Argentina
A predominantly warm and dry autumn is shaping up for most of Argentina and Chile, to the benefit of farmers ahead of the upcoming harvest.
“Overall, the drier weather [in Argentina] would be welcomed for corn and sorghum harvesting that starts in March,” Nicholls said, “but any heat early in the season could magnify the dryness concerns.”
The chances of any meaningful rainfall across these areas will arrive near the tail end of the season as the storm track slowly shifts northward.
“Rainfall prospects can increase toward Concepcion, Chile, later in the season with a couple of chances for light rain possibly reaching as far north as central Chile, including Santiago, in May,” Nicholls said.
“These rain chances in central Chile later in the season will be very limited with a better chance for some early season heat,” he added.
The storms may also lay down the base snowpack for ski resorts in the Andes ahead of winter.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Weather Forecasts
AccuWeather's 2020 South America autumn forecast
By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Mar 4, 2020 4:16 PM EDT
AccuWeather’s annual autumn forecast for South America is here, and much of the continent is projected to see summer warmth carry over into the start of the new season.
This widespread warmth paired with a persistent dryness will exacerbate drought concerns across the northern extent of the continent, especially in Colombia and Venezuela.
Take a look at the complete region-by-region breakdown below:
Drought to worsen across Columbia, Venezuela
Drought has been a looming issue for the northern extent of South America in recent years, and the changing of the seasons will not bring much in terms of relief as dry weather persists over the region.
“Drought problems will continue from Venezuela and Colombia to French Guiana as well as parts of Ecuador and coastal Peru,” AccuWeather International Forecasting Manager Jason Nicholls said.
Medellin, Colombia, is one city running well below normal in terms of rainfall. Since the start of December, the city has only received 16 percent of its normal rainfall.
The lack of significant rain will not only take a toll on farmers, but also those who rely on water from area reservoirs.
“The lack of rain and low river levels will continue to cause problems for hydrological generated electricity in Venezuela which can result in continued blackouts,” Nicholls said.
Hydroelectricity is at the center of Venezuela’s power grid and droughts have contributed to widespread blackouts in the past.
With another dry season on tap, eyes will be on the water levels behind the Guri Dam, the site of the country’s largest hydroelectric plant.
The Guri Dam in Venezuela in November 2017, one year after a severe drought struck the country. (Photo/Wikimedia Commons/Warairarepano&Guaicaipuro)
Even though the worst of the drought focuses on the northern coasts of South America, areas farther inland, such as Brazil’s Amazon basin, could still see adverse effects from the dry pattern.
“A drier-than-normal pattern in autumn, which is expected to persist through winter, could lead to a high fire threat again late in 2020,” Nicholls said.
Rain to aid autumn crops for farmers in Brazil
Brazil’s most populated areas, including Brasilia and São Paulo, saw rounds of rain throughout the summer and the wet weather pattern is projected to linger into autumn.
“Growing conditions have been overall favorable across the rest of the Brazilian croplands from Parana on northern to Bahia, Mato Grosso and Goias. These areas should continue to see adequate rains right up until the harvest, so crop yields should be good to excellent," Jason said.
The rainy spells from northeast Brazil into Paraguay and Bolivia will help to limit temperatures in the coming months, making it one of the only areas of South America that can expect near- to below-normal temperatures.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Meanwhile, Brazil’s southern states, as well as areas of Uruguay and Argentina, will need to wait until the second half of the season for the return of wet weather.
“Dry spells [in these areas] will continue through March and likely into April before possibly turning wetter late in the season,” Nicholls said.
This includes Porto Alegre, Brazil; Asuncion, Paraguay; Montevideo, Uruguay; and Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Dry pattern to dominate the autumn for Chile, Argentina
A predominantly warm and dry autumn is shaping up for most of Argentina and Chile, to the benefit of farmers ahead of the upcoming harvest.
“Overall, the drier weather [in Argentina] would be welcomed for corn and sorghum harvesting that starts in March,” Nicholls said, “but any heat early in the season could magnify the dryness concerns.”
Related:
The chances of any meaningful rainfall across these areas will arrive near the tail end of the season as the storm track slowly shifts northward.
“Rainfall prospects can increase toward Concepcion, Chile, later in the season with a couple of chances for light rain possibly reaching as far north as central Chile, including Santiago, in May,” Nicholls said.
“These rain chances in central Chile later in the season will be very limited with a better chance for some early season heat,” he added.
The storms may also lay down the base snowpack for ski resorts in the Andes ahead of winter.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo