NOAA Report: GW Will Cause Extreme Weather

UPDATE: Here is an article discussing the NOAA report, insisting that no one storm can be blamed on Global Warming.

ORIGINAL POST:

One of the things I've always been suspicious of in the whole Global Warming Debate (if there is one) is the idea that an increase in global temperatures will cause "more extreme" weather. Even though I'm not interested enough in Climate Change to read a lot on the subject, I have believed that this was one of least scientifically-supported of major points that Pro-AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) pundits have grabbed a hold of.

It's easy for politicians to go along with this idea of more extreme weather because it sells their cause - it's much more exciting to say "Hurricanes bigger than Katrina will hit major cities" as opposed to "The temperature will gradually increase over the next 100 years." But what evidence is there for this - why would that gradual increase in temperature be important?

NOAA has come out with a new report, including a nifty table, shown above, which has started to change my mind (if because of nothing else, it's from a reputable organization). Although I think it has some weak points, it does lend some official credence to this possibility. Still, it seems like it is a bit repetitive. Read it and see what you think, then leave me a Comment below (note - because I am on vacation it may be a while before I reply).

Some of the weak points I see are:

1. Although "extreme weather" will increase, that doesn't include cold, which seems to violate their definition of "extreme" unless they are suggesting that the slight warming would offset any extreme cold outbreaks.

2. The report is only for North America, and although home is where the (political) heart is, items like a decrease in hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are practically footnoted. Technically, another report could come out that negates all these things in other parts of the world and this one could still stand.

3. The report (or at least the chart) lists "Warmer days", "Fewer cold days", "Fewer Cold Nights," "Hotter Days," "More Frequently Hot Days" and "More Frequent Hot Nights" as if they are separate examples of weather that will be affected separately from general warming.

4. Drought will not change for North America, but is still used as a bullet item to promote this report.

5. Off-topic items such as "sea-ice extent" are listed as supporting points

The most important and potentially astounding points that I got from reading the briefing were:

1. Hurricanes (and cold season storms such as Nor'easters and West Coast storms) will produce stronger winds and higher waves.

2. Precipitation will be more intense (downpours/flash-flooding will increase) but overall precip will decrease.

If indeed Global Warming will indeed lead to more extreme weather, this is very important because it will impact our daily lives and businesses tremendously. Instead of planning for typical floods, lightning and hurricanes, we'll need to plan for the worst - or in fact plan to increase the extremity of what we think is the "worst case scenario."

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