Models Show Negative 10s, Gulf Snow
Some of you asked what evidence we had for issuing the press release about the return (if it was ever here) of winter. While I won't pretend to know what all goes through Joe Bastardi's head as far as climatological comparisons and indexes such as El Nino, I can tell you that the all of the long-range Forecast Models [JessePedia] are all showing extreme winter temperatures on their way. Here's a sampling, from our AccuWeather.com Professional and Clear Decisions services:
There are two main cold outbreaks that the GFS and other models are hinting at.
THE FIRST OUTBREAK:
The first one is a week from today, when the GFS predicts that the Midwest will fall into the negative teens for low temperatures:
The DGEX model agrees, and is even more extreme, showing a large area below -15 Fahrenheit:
The ECWMF (European) model (which I can't show you because we're not paying for redistribution rights) shows most of Minnesota below -15, only two days earlier.
During this time, nearly all of the nation will be under freezing overnight. If you look at the Canadian Ensembles, there is no way, in the model's wildest dreams, that most of the nation won't be shivering next week. The map below, from our Clear Decisions service, interprets the GFS Ensembles to show the probability of a low temperature below freezing on 1/17/07. Red means 100% chance.
And the map below shows that five states in the Midwest have a shot of falling below 0 F that morning.
The graph below, also from Clear Decisions, shows that temperatures have the probability of dipping as low as -17 F in Des Moines, Iowa next week, according to the GFS Ensembles, with an average GFS ensemble prediction of -7. See also New York City in the teens and Jacksonville, Florida approaching freezing at the end of the graph (and still falling).
As for the Canadian Ensembles, while the average of all forecasts has the 0 F (-17 C) line barely in the U.S. during the second outbreak, some ensemble members put it as far south as the Hazzard Area [JessePedia]! Looking at the 14 F (-10 C) line, some forecasts place it near the Gulf Coast!
The GFS also shows a swath of snow and ice across the Gulf Coast that morning:
OUTBREAK II, THE SEQUEL:
Next week's cold outbreak doesn't dip that far south or east, but the GFS predicts that will happen on the 26th, when the -15 line will reach Kansas and Missouri, and temperatures will be below zero on the northern border of Arkansas and Tennessee, as well as much of West Virginia. The major East Coast cities will be around 10 above on the morning of the 27th -- then the GFS's forecast period is over so we can't tell what happens after that but the next night might be even colder in the major cities.
