The most frequently asked question in my inbox this morning is: Where is the hybrid storm off the Southeast coast going to move, and where will it make landfall? Here's what the Forecast Models [JessePedia] say this morning:

This graphic was hand-produced by taking the model track maps from AccuWeather.com Professional (Pro users click here to get the individual maps), and putting them together. This graphic includes forecasts from the SREF Ensembles, GFS, NAM, and UKMET and NOGAPS (if available) storm tracks and putting them together. The NAM track is highlighted on top as the bright green, thin line because it is normally the preferred short-term model in the U.S.

What the map above is saying is that the storm will continue to track westward until it's near the craw of the Southeast off the Georgia coast, then turn towards the south. Considering the slow movement and overall oddity of the storm, it's impressive that the models agree this much. If you look at the surface pressure maps from the models, the reason the tracks stop is because the storm basically dissipates there. If you look at the wind streamline maps, the circulation does technically "make landfall" on most models, but the overall storm will be much weaker by the time it does. In fact, it's likely that the impact from wind and surf (shown below) will be greater today and tonight than when it makes landfall. That said, if you really want to get specific, here are this morning's model guesses on where the circulation will make landfall (click on the model name for the wind streamline map):

NAM: Fernandina Beach, Florida [MAP] as broken circulation, then moves NE out to sea and reforms circulation
GFS: Hilton Head Island, South Carolina [MAP] Thursday Morning as closed circulation, then SW drift
NOGAPS: Cumberland Island, Georgia [MAP] Wednesday Afternoon as closed circulation, then to Tampa, FL as broken circulation, then into Gulf reforming circulation

I will admit, we have not done a great job in displaying tracks for this storm. This morning, the only graphic we have is this one:

And I believe this was created yesterday afternoon, so I would warn you that the collective consciousness of our 100 meteorologists may have changed by this morning. Why have we not issued detailed track graphics for this storm? Well, these are no excuses but I can tell you two reasons. One, the storm is not officially tropical, yet, and we usually only produce a plethora of track graphics for tropical systems. Two, the storm had been drifting very slowly yesterday and because of this, the models are disagreeing on exactly where it will go. The storm was "caught between the cogs" of other weather systems and is kind of slowly bouncing around.

The current position, winds, pressure, satellite and radar is shown above. Click to enlarge or click here for super hi-res version. There are no operating buoys anywhere near the storm; a buoy offshore from southeast NC (#41013) reported wind gusts near 50 knots and waves of about 22 feet this morning. Those links are live but both winds and waves are decreasing now. On our Breaking Weather News Stories (PREMIUM | PRO), we report that "Monday, parts of Route 12, which connects the Outer Banks of North Carolina, were closed for a time as water as deep as three feet poured over the highway. With a persistent Northeast wind, further coastal flooding is possible over the next two days."

OTHER IMPACTS: While there will be a general risk for thunderstorms in the eastern Carolinas and Georgia, The SPC [JessePedia] says that there will not be widespread severe weather. Still, I would be careful around any thunderstorms spawned by a hybrid system, for the same reason that thunderstorms are sometimes enhanced by a tropical system. Ironically, it will also have an effect on the fire situation in the Southeast.

Above is a NASA satellite image showing the existing fires in Georgia and Florida, with the center of the hybrid storm located off to the east at the "X": Because the storm will spread little rain, but lots of wind inland, it could help spread existing fires.

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