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Deadly NE Rain Gone? Plus Tornado, Agnes

By Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Jun 28, 2006 2:02 PM EDT | Updated Jun 28, 2006 5:38 PM EDT

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The death toll in this week's flooding has reached eleven according to this article at KNX1070. Ten counties in New York have declared states of emergency and Chron.com says that over 2,000 people have been evacuated in Maryland. WJZ.com has a photo of a tornado in Saint Mary's County, Maryland.

Relieving the Pressure - June 27, 2006 - Water pours out of gates of the Howard T. Duckett Dam, which has been overflowing the Patuxent River, causing flooding in Laurel, Md., Tuesday, June 27, 2006. Six of the seven gates are partially open to relieve pressure cased by recent rains. (AP Photo/ Leslie E. Kossoff)

A cursory look at the Northeast radar animation this morning would seem to indicate that the rain is on the way out of New England. But in fact forecasters are predicting additional rain to fall in New England through tomorrow evening. Check out the NMM forecast model's prediction of 3-hour precipitation for New England tonight and tomorrow:

nam628as

TOMORROW MORNING: STILL RAINING...

nam628bs

TOMORROW NIGHT: STILL RAINING...

Here is the 7-day rainfall total as of this morning. It's Doppler-estimated and I'd say it's reading about 4 inches high. It also indicates more than 24 inches in isolated locations in eastern Pennsylvania which I don't think is reliable. The wettest reports from local Doppler estimates such as those from Central Pennsylvania's radar put the storm totals at near 17 inches, I believe. Official totals as reported by the NWS will be posted to this blog this afternoon after the current line of rain moves out.

NASA's Earth Observatory has a satellite-estimated precipitation estimate image and movie from the heavy rain in Maryland earlier this week, which shows in excess of 150 mm (6 inches):

midatlantic_mpa_2006174_tn

Now it's time to worry about river flooding as these heavy rain amounts make their way to the Atlantic.

These forecasts for Pennsylvania rivers are incredible, for example at Easton forecasters are predicting a stage of 38.8 feet, 16.8 feet OVER flood stage!

This is going to bring back memories of Hurricane Agnes in 1972, which hit Florida then made a second landfall as a Tropical Storm in New York City, then spread intense flooding into New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. To quote from our Weather Headlines:

Agnes made her final landfall in New York as a tropical storm in 1972, but she was proof that even a weaker tropical system can have devastating effects. The system merged with a non-tropical low pressure and dumped 8-16 inches of rain over a large portion of upstate New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland, with some locations receiving nearly 20 inches of rain in just three days. The storm killed 122 people and caused over $3 billion in damage - in modern dollars, this would work out to $12 billion! River waters throughout much of the mid-Atlantic reached all-time highs. To put the severity of the flooding across east-central Pennsylvania and New York in perspective, many river heights are expected to rival those of Agnes within the next 24 hours.

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Jesse Ferrell
AccuWeather Meteorologist and Social Media Manager Jesse Ferrell covers extreme weather and the intersection of meteorology and social media.
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