A Storm Has Never Taken Erika's Path Through Florida
NOTE: These are my opinions as a meteorologist who does not forecast on a daily basis. This blog may not be updated with future track changes; see http://hurricane.accuweather.com/ for the latest official AccuWeather.com Erika track.
Tropical Storm Erika killed several people with severe flooding on the island of Dominica yesterday, and moved mostly south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (see below for report). Erika's forecast track this morning takes it across the southern tip of Florida, northwestward, bisecting the state...
Especially if you take the HRWF's overnight forecast at its word:
This track is rarely taken by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Actually, never. The closest matches are Hurricane King in 1950, which came in much more from the South, and Tropical Storm Ernesto in 2006, which interestingly went back out in the Atlantic and hit North Carolina.
An honorable mention for this track goes to Hurricane Cleo went up the eastern coast of Florida in 1964, maintaining Cat 2 status after crossing Cuba:
So what does this mean? If you look at an animation of the ATCF models for the life of Tropical Storm Erika (thanks to UCAR for the GIF that I've made below), it's clear that the models are trending westward and that this isn't a track forecast that will actually verify. It will either be in the Gulf, or (less likely) swing back to east of Florida.
It also means that maps you'll see today showing a "window of movement" are valid, but a center track of those windows will probably not happen (note that, in our map as of this morning that the "track" is not in the center of the window, for that reason). Never say never though, *cough* Hurricane Sandy, though that was a much larger storm which was more easily tracked by the models. And finally, as Henry just pointed out, it means that forecasts about the storm should not talk about the impacts that a track like this would have -- because they will likely turn out to be wrong.
One other thought: Because this is a weak storm, the track (i.e. recognized center of the storm) has been a bit wacky going through the Caribbean islands. Until that gets more linear, models should be used with caution.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands mostly dodged the (rain) bullet overnight; however blog reader Mahde on the BVI reports this morning: "Power blackout in Tortola. Some cable lines down. Waves pushed rocks onto roads (photo below). Winds 45 mph @ sea level, 65 mph on hills. Started from 9pm and ended 5am."
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