For the latest on next week's storm, monitor my Facebook Page, our Hurricane Center for Sandy's track, and watch our news story and blogs, many of whom are talking about the storm. See also my blog from Monday talking about historical precedents to October "superstorms."
A morning forecast model image gave every meteorologist who saw it a sick feeling in their gut:
What it showed was a 932mb (Strong Category 4) Hurricane plowing into the mid-Atlantic coast, like nothing seen in modern history. If that were to hit at that strength, it would break low pressure records across the mid-Atlantic; major damage would be widespread.
But how likely is that as a solution? Historically speaking, not very. The map below shows the tracks of all storms (that once were hurricanes) in October, November and December since 1900. None of these storms made landfall in the Northeast. (Henry found an (Extra) Tropical Storm that followed a similar track in 1923).
Furthermore, no Oct/Nov/Dec storm that had ever reached Category 3 has made landfall north of North Carolina* since 1900 (source; shown below) - in fact no storm in any month after 1900 has maintained at least Cat 3 status anywhere close to the NE coast, except for Esther in 1961. *I had erroneously said "Florida" before; there was one storm, Hazel in 1954, which made landfall north of Florida - near the NC/SC border.
Fortunately, the GFDL model later changed its track to be off the coast, but there are still models showing landfall. Monitor the links at the top of this entry for future information.
The four-day barrage of storms hitting the Pacific Northwest did a lot of damage. But if you believe AccuWeather.com readers, it never happened. I delve into why.
The USGS has released hundreds of thousands of aerial photos taken after Hurricane Matthew from Florida to the Carolinas- here are examples and instructions.
I said last night on Twitter: "Bermuda, I hope you're ready for Hurricane Nicole." What was a Cat 2 is now a Cat 4!
Hurricane Matthew is no more as of Sunday afternoon, but the flooding from the storm will continue as rivers rise. Here's a summary of the "greatest hits" from the storm:
Hurricane Matthew is making his closest approach to the Florida Coast this morning and there is hyperbole on both ends of the media scale.
Hurricane Matthew has been upgraded to a Category 4 storm and is on its way to an unprecedented bounce up the southeast U.S. coast.