For the latest on next week's storm, monitor my Facebook Page, our Hurricane Center for Sandy's track, and watch our news story and blogs, many of whom are talking about the storm. See also my blog from Monday talking about historical precedents to October "superstorms."
A morning forecast model image gave every meteorologist who saw it a sick feeling in their gut:
What it showed was a 932mb (Strong Category 4) Hurricane plowing into the mid-Atlantic coast, like nothing seen in modern history. If that were to hit at that strength, it would break low pressure records across the mid-Atlantic; major damage would be widespread.
But how likely is that as a solution? Historically speaking, not very. The map below shows the tracks of all storms (that once were hurricanes) in October, November and December since 1900. None of these storms made landfall in the Northeast. (Henry found an (Extra) Tropical Storm that followed a similar track in 1923).
Furthermore, no Oct/Nov/Dec storm that had ever reached Category 3 has made landfall north of North Carolina* since 1900 (source; shown below) - in fact no storm in any month after 1900 has maintained at least Cat 3 status anywhere close to the NE coast, except for Esther in 1961. *I had erroneously said "Florida" before; there was one storm, Hazel in 1954, which made landfall north of Florida - near the NC/SC border.
Fortunately, the GFDL model later changed its track to be off the coast, but there are still models showing landfall. Monitor the links at the top of this entry for future information.
There are a number of holiday (Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Holiday) sales happening this season with gadgets that can help you observe the weather.
Siberia has fallen to -66 degrees as the cold air pool grows and throws off a storm to soak Japan with 2 feet of rain and even more snow.
This week's powerful California storm has now brought a report of a tornado in southern L.A. this morning, and additional reports of waterspouts this afternoon
A very deep storm in the North Atlantic, not far from a strong high pressure system, will cause incredible wave heights midweek.
Super Typhoon Hagupit is approaching the Philippines today, threatening to make landfall near the same area that Super Typhoon Haiyan did in 2013.
Different layers of temperatures in the atmosphere will cause the precipitation to end up in various forms. Looking at the NMM forecast cross-section...