The Eastern Pacific has been quiet as of late, while after a pretty interesting first part of June. But it seems as if the Tropics are going to come to life again over the weekend and early next week.
Currently south of Mexico and west of Central America, there is a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Within this area of showers and thunderstorms; models are pretty similar in developing low pressure over the weekend, that will lead to a full fledged tropical storm of hurricane early next week.
By Sunday morning both the GFS and UKMET has an organized low pressure west of southern Mexico.
By Tuesday both models intensify that low pressure area while moving it to the northwest. There is some difference in the position by Tuesday but both have the same relative idea.
If all this transpires, as I believe, we will have Douglas sometime early next week. The future track after Tuesday is very uncertain. The GFS actually threatens the coast of Mexico south of the Baja Peninsula. The UKMET does not run out farther than Tuesday at this point. The European is much farther west than the GFS keeping the storm well out to sea.
This area will have to be watched and we have plenty of time for that.
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There are several things to focus on across the West over the next week including dangerous surf, heat and storms.
Dangerous heat will build across the Southwest through the middle of next week putting some records in jeopardy.
Parts of the West will bake in the heat over the next few days but cooler weather will arrive by the start of the weekend.
Models have been consistent on bringing a rigorous system from the Northwest to the Southwest this weekend.
The pattern next week will favor unsettled and cool weather for the Northwest.
Rain and mountain snow will highlight just about every day this week in the Northwest.