Storm Development Expected in the Tropics South of Mexico

The Eastern Pacific has been quiet as of late, while after a pretty interesting first part of June. But it seems as if the Tropics are going to come to life again over the weekend and early next week.

Currently south of Mexico and west of Central America, there is a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Within this area of showers and thunderstorms; models are pretty similar in developing low pressure over the weekend, that will lead to a full fledged tropical storm of hurricane early next week.

By Sunday morning both the GFS and UKMET has an organized low pressure west of southern Mexico.

GFS:

UKMET:

By Tuesday both models intensify that low pressure area while moving it to the northwest. There is some difference in the position by Tuesday but both have the same relative idea.

GFS:

UKMET:

If all this transpires, as I believe, we will have Douglas sometime early next week. The future track after Tuesday is very uncertain. The GFS actually threatens the coast of Mexico south of the Baja Peninsula. The UKMET does not run out farther than Tuesday at this point. The European is much farther west than the GFS keeping the storm well out to sea.

This area will have to be watched and we have plenty of time for that.

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