Severe weather, tornado outbreak to bring ‘high risk’ of damaging storms to central, southern US
Damaging and dangerous conditions will unfold for millions as perhaps the most significant severe weather outbreak of the year so far begins on Friday and concludes on Sunday.
Over 100 million are at risk of damaging and dangerous severe weather Friday and into the weekend, with damaging winds and over two dozen tornadoes possible on Friday afternoon. AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno breaks down which areas could see the worst of the storms.
In what may unfold into the biggest severe weather and tornado event of the year so far, dangerous, damaging and possibly life-threatening conditions will occur in dozens of states. The area is spread over 500,000 square miles and is home to more than 100 million people in the central and southern United States, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
The forecast team of meteorologists at AccuWeather has boosted the severe weather threat to high levels for both Friday and Saturday.
The multiple-day severe weather event will last from Friday to Sunday, shifting eastward each day from the Great Plains to the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee valleys, the southern and central Appalachians, and the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
The northern extent of the severe weather will be unusual for so early in the season, especially considering that part of the zone has experienced snow and subfreezing air in recent days and may quickly return to those conditions in the wake of the storm system. The severe weather risk will reach portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois and Michigan.
In part of this area, a long-lived, long-tracking high wind event, known as a derecho, could evolve.
Powerful wind gusts will be the most common cause of tree, power line and property damage from the thunderstorms that erupt. There may be hundreds of incidents of damaging, straight-line wind gusts. The storm system's intensity will also produce strong winds separate from the thunderstorm activity
Some of the stronger thunderstorms will contain hail to the size of marbles and golf balls. Even larger hail could fall in a small number of the biggest storms.
Any of the thunderstorms can bring torrential downpours that can briefly reduce motorists' visibility, flood city streets, and leave ponding on poorly drained highway stretches.
The severe weather threat includes multiple major cities such as St. Louis, Chicago, Nashville, New Orleans, and Atlanta, as well as hundreds of thousands of miles of rural communities. The risk of tornadoes will extend to the nighttime hours Friday and Saturday nights, which will add to the danger.
Tornadoes typically have the lowest death toll from natural disasters, but at night, tornadoes are far more deadly than they are by day.
Multiple tornadoes anticipated
Gauging the number of tornadoes that can be produced during a severe weather outbreak is challenging any time of the year, but especially so during the early springtime. Daytime heating is often limited, the air is often not very moist and low cloud cover can be stubborn to break. All three tend to limit the severity of thunderstorms and the discrete thunderstorm cells, referred to as supercells. These rotating powerful thunderstorms tend to produce a substantial number of tornadoes.
AccuWeather meteorologists are examining where the greatest warmth and moisture will be present versus where the best jet stream energy and wind shear will be—in other words, where the most ideal conditions for tornadoes will be.
It is possible that these ideal conditions will remain somewhat separated from each other Friday, which could limit the number of tornadoes, AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker said.
However, should these conditions unite, it could lead to a concentration of tornadoes. Currently, the most favorable zone for a clustering of thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes Friday may be centered in parts of Missouri, central and southern Illinois, and northern Arkansas. However, there can be a tornado anywhere in the some-risk and moderate-risk zones.
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The severe weather threat zone will extend from the central and eastern Great Lakes Saturday, including southern Ontario, to the central Gulf Coast.
The area where the jet stream and the warm, moist air interact the most may focus on the zone from central Kentucky through much of Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi to western Georgia, the western part of the Florida Panhandle, and the southeastern part of Louisiana.
In particular, much of Alabama and Mississippi could be in the crosshairs of a tornado outbreak from Saturday afternoon to Saturday night. Multiple, significantly strong tornadoes that may be on the ground for more than a couple of minutes.
Severe weather to reach Atlantic coast Sunday
As is often the case when severe weather advances from the Mississippi Valley to the Atlantic coast, the threat may tend to be more "linear" by Sunday—meaning it may be primarily from a line or two of thunderstorms packing strong straight-line wind gusts and torrential downpours.
As the storms develop near and pass through the busy Interstate 75, 77, 81, and 95 corridors and the major airport hubs from Charlotte to Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, and New York City, major travel disruptions, including flight delays and cancellations, will be possible.
Renewed flooding risk for Kentucky, surrounding states
While streams and rivers in Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia and Tennessee have receded from their high levels in response to the mid-February deluge, the ground is still moist enough to react quickly to additional heavy rain in part of this area, as well as new territory in portions of Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi and the Carolinas.
People living or traveling along small streams and low-lying areas along unprotected river flatlands should be prepared to take action.
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