Severe weather threat increasing for South, Midwest and East next week
Severe weather, including the potential for tornadoes, is headed to parts of the southern, central and eastern United States next week.
The southern U.S. is under a high risk for severe storms next Tuesday, March 4. The region could not only face powerful thunderstorms but also hail, damaging winds and tornadoes next week.
The first significant threat of severe weather for March will build across portions of the southern Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday before shifting toward the Appalachians, northeastern Gulf coast and southern Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. The threat includes the potential for tornadoes.
A storm currently over the northern Pacific Ocean is projected to push onshore in the northwestern United States this weekend and dive across the Rockies on Monday. The storm's next path will take it across the Southern states, where it will tap into Gulf moisture. The combination of that moisture, building warmth and a strong jet stream will boost the risk of severe weather and likely some tornadoes.
At this stage, numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms will likely occur on Tuesday over the south-central region and some to numerous severe thunderstorm activity on Wednesday from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast states. AccuWeather meteorologists will be watching the situation closely.
"This event, spanning two days is likely to bring much more severe weather incidents when compared to a couple of weeks ago in a similar area," AccuWeather Expert Meteorologist Guy Pearson said.
During the mid-February outbreak, there were nearly 400 filtered reports of severe weather, including a couple dozen tornadoes. This severe weather outbreak may encompass two dozen states over two days.
The first severe thunderstorms are forecast to erupt over portions of central Texas and Oklahoma on Monday afternoon and night. Some of these storms may continue to progress eastward through the night and others may tend to weaken once the heating of the day comes to an end.
Many more thunderstorms will erupt on Tuesday.
"As we see it now, thunderstorms are likely to erupt rather quickly, strengthen and organize at midday on Tuesday," AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker said. "This appears to be primarily a strong wind gust event, but there can still be some tornadoes."
Peak straight-line wind gusts in many of the storms will range between 65 and 75 mph, which is as high as hurricane intensity. The AccuWeather StormMax™ wind gust is currently rated at 90 mph.
AccuWeather meteorologists are highlighting an area including northeastern Texas, northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and central Mississippi for a high risk of severe thunderstorms. There is a large area of moderate risk and a massive zone with some risk of severe weather.
Sometimes, when thunderstorms erupt quickly and organize into a solid line, there may be fewer supercell thunderstorms. Individual supercell thunderstorms often produce the strongest tornadoes.
Damaging hail and flash flooding are also a concern from the storms as storms move along.
As the storms approach and pass through the airport hubs, airline ground stops and flight delays will result. Motorists will encounter delays on the highways due to poor visibility from windswept rain and ponding during torrential downpours.
Thunderstorms are projected to organize into a solid line, sometimes referred to as a squall line, during Tuesday night and Wednesday.
"Since the center of the low pressure area, or storm, is likely to track northeastward into the Midwest, the threat of severe weather on Wednesday may extend from Ohio to Florida and Virginia along an advancing cold front," Walker said.
Wind gusts are likely to remain the primary threat with gusts in the strongest storms between 65 and 75 mph. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust for Wednesday's storms remains at 90 mph.
Storm impacts north of severe weather could be significant
The same storm system will have a cold and wet portion to deal with.
"There will be snow on the backside of that storm on Tuesday from the Rockies to the Great Lakes," AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin said.
The warmest air of the year so far could have the snow cover in the northern tier primed for a rapid meltdown.
"There may be flooding across the interior Northeast during Wednesday and Wednesday night, where rain pours down on top of the deep snow, especially in upstate New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine," DePodwin added.
Severe weather typically ramps up in March
March often marks a significant upturn in severe weather, especially in the South Central and Southeast states where the combination of building warmth and moisture from the Gulf overlap.
The pattern through much of March will continue to favor storms of similar nature traveling out from the Rockies and either toward the Great Lakes or the middle to southern East coast.
"There is the potential for at least three more severe weather events in the next three weeks in the Central and Eastern states," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. "However, the scope, location and intensity of these will likely vary."
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