‘We will not leave’: At least 180 still missing in Texas flood zone as death toll hits 119
Camp Mystic was one of many areas in central Texas that were struck by catastrophic flooding, with search and rescue operations still underway. A Major Disaster Declaration has been issued.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter breaks down the factors that led to the deadly July Fourth floods in Texas’ hill country and the long-lasting impacts ahead.
The staggering scope of Texas’s flood disaster came into sharper focus Tuesday night when Gov. Greg Abbott announced that an estimated 180 people remained missing, the first time officials publicly acknowledged the scale of the recovery still ahead.
The vast majority of the missing, 161 people, are from Kerr County, where walls of water swept away homes, vehicles and entire blocks. No rescues have been reported there since Friday, officials said. The statewide death toll has climbed to 119, but with so many still missing, that number is expected to rise significantly, authorities said Wednesday.
Flash flooding remains a concern across central Texas, including metros like Austin, Waco and Bryan. Although storms carry less moisture than during the Independence Day disaster, the saturated ground and vulnerable infrastructure heighten the risk.
The destruction has left hundreds displaced and large swaths of infrastructure damaged or washed away. With no signs of survivors in days, the operation has shifted to what officials describe as a grim and complex recovery.
Abbott, who returned to Kerr County Tuesday to assess the damage, vowed to continue recovery operations without pause. “Right now, our number one job is to find every single missing person,” he said in a post on X. “We will not leave until that job is done.”
"We continue to have hundreds of officers, deputies and support staff working every aspect of this emergency, along with air, water, K9 and other assets conducting search and rescue," Kerr County Sheriff's Office said Tuesday. The Texas National Guard and the Texas Military Department have also assisted in the rescue of over 500 individuals who needed to be evacuated from flooded areas.
A Major Disaster Declaration has been signed by President Trump for Kerr County, the area of Texas that was hit the hardest by the flooding. "These families are enduring an unimaginable tragedy, with many lives lost, and many still missing. The Trump Administration continues to work closely with State and Local Leaders," he said in a post on social media.
“The horrific loss of life in this flash flooding disaster is heartbreaking. Our hearts go out to the survivors, first responders, officials and volunteers helping families who have lost loved ones in the flood waters,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.
Timeline of the flooding
Flash flood warnings were issued in central Texas hours in advance of the deadly flooding early Friday morning, although the most urgent weather alerts were sent in the middle of the night when many people in the area were sleeping.
A radar loop showing the progression of rainfall in central Texas between midnight on July 4 and 7 p.m. CDT on July 5.
A flash flood watch was issued more than 12 hours in advance at 1:18 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, July 3. A flash flood warning was issued at 1:14 a.m. CDT on Friday, about three hours before the peak of the flooding occurred between 4 and 4:30 a.m. CDT, according to Porter.
Seven months' worth of rain fell in less than two hours, which caused the Guadalupe River to rise an astonishing 22 feet in just two hours at a gauge near Hunt, where the river forks. Water levels rose to 29.5 feet before the gauge stopped transmitting data, potentially from being washed downstream by the ferocity of the floodwaters.
The catastrophe unfolded in an area that Porter calls the Flash Flood Capital of the United States.
"You have a lot of hilly terrain, lots of hills and valleys, and that water pours off the hills and into the lower elevations where there are a lot of low water crossing streams and creeks [in] close proximity to moisture from the Gulf and also the eastern Pacific," Porter explained. "A lot of times, the steering winds in the atmosphere are slow, so these thunderstorms dump persistent heavy rainfall, torrential rain over the same areas for hours on end."
As of the morning of July 7, the death toll of the devastating Texas flooding has climbed to at least 82 victims. AccuWeather’s Jon Porter says floodwaters rose up to 30 feet in one hour on July 4.
Families returned to Camp Mystic on Sunday, stepping through debris strewn around empty cabins at the all-girls summer camp devastated by the flash floods that tore homes from their foundations.
"Today I visited Camp Mystic. It, and the river running beside it, were horrendously ravaged in ways unlike I’ve seen in any natural disaster," Gov. Abbott posted on X on Saturday evening. "The height the rushing water reached to the top of cabins was shocking. We won’t stop until we find every girl who was in those cabins."
Stories of heroism have emerged amid the harrowing scenes.
Scott Ruskan, a member of the U.S. Coast Guard, was part of a team that was dispatched to Kerr County early Friday morning, where he helped rescue 165 kids at Camp Mystic. “I’ve never seen anything this tragic in my life,” Ruskan told CNN. “They’re having probably the worst day of their life. They’re missing friends. They’re missing loved ones. They don’t know where they are. Some of them may be unaccounted for. Some of them may be somewhere else.”
More rain in the forecast
Rain and thunderstorms are in the forecast across central Texas this week, but the upcoming rain is not expected to be nearly as significant or as widespread as those late last week and over the weekend.
"There is a concern we have that on Tuesday and Wednesday, with humidity levels remaining high, there is another flare-up or cluster of thunderstorms thereof somewhere over central and eastern Texas," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Any thunderstorm can hinder search and rescue efforts. Even if the rain does not trigger additional rounds of flooding, lightning can be dangerous and force officials to suspend operations until conditions improve.
The tradeoff for the drier conditions will be hot conditions, especially for those spending most of the day outside or without access to air conditioning, with AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures in the afternoon between 100 and 110 degrees Fahrenheit.
Damage and economic toll
"Rapidly moving water can result in tremendous destruction and risk to safety, as seen in this tragedy," Porter explained. "This is the latest disaster in an area with a long and tragic history of deadly and destructive flash floods."
AccuWeather estimates that the extreme flash flood disaster caused an estimated $18 billion to $22 billion in total damage and economic loss. This figure includes the cost of search and recovery efforts, the extensive cleanup ahead, insurance claims and impacts on future tourism in the region.
Water damage is particularly costly to repair and is often not covered by homeowners’ insurance policies. Many people are often underinsured for flood damage. An estimated 4 percent of homeowners in the United States have flood insurance through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), although the uptake in the NFIP program tends to be higher in communities along waterways, such as rivers, where some of the flooding has occurred in this event.
“This latest weather disaster in the United States could further complicate the insurance availability and affordability challenges that many Texas families and businesses are struggling with," Porter added.
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