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News / Severe Weather

Nearly 100M at risk for next severe weather outbreak across heartland

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Apr 12, 2022 2:16 PM EDT | Updated Apr 13, 2022 5:41 PM EDT

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Close to 100 million Americans will be at risk for all forms of severe weather that includes tornadoes into Wednesday night as a dangerous severe weather threat persists, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. The severe weather is a continuation of violent storms that targeted locations from Texas to Minnesota on Tuesday and part of the same massive storm system responsible for an ongoing blizzard over the northern Plains and high winds over the southern Plains.

Predictions made by AccuWeather as early as the middle of last week about a significant multi-day severe weather outbreak were being realized on Monday and Tuesday as preliminary severe weather incidents ranging from high winds and tornadoes to large hail have already numbered in the hundreds. The storms are primarily targeting a 1,000-mile-long swath of the country from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes, but areas farther east will face some impacts as well.

This radar image of the central United States, taken mid-afternoon on Wednesday, April 13, 2022, depicts thunderstorms in shades of yellow, orange and red. Rain is shown as green.

Severe weather began impacting parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Missouri on Sunday night with multiple incidents of hail and strong winds. On Monday and Monday night, more storms erupted from Oklahoma to Arkansas and Missouri and included a half dozen preliminary reports of tornadoes, including a tornado emergency around the Little Rock, Arkansas, area.

The ongoing severe weather outbreak will continue to pose a significant threat to lives and property, and it could lead to disruptions in travel and shipping over the central United States. People living in or traveling through the region should closely monitor forecasts and stay alert for the latest severe weather watches, warnings and advisories, forecasters urge.

The storms will hit some of the same areas that have been hammered by tornadoes and high winds on a weekly basis over the past month and will visit some Midwestern areas that have not yet experienced violent thunderstorms this spring.

The midweek severe weather threat includes major cities such as New Orleans, Nashville and Little Rock, Arkansas, to the south and St. Louis, Chicago and Indianapolis to the north. The risk of storms will extend as far to the north as part of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and to near Green Bay, Wisconsin.

"Tornadoes will remain a high concern into Wednesday evening with the continued potential for tornadoes to be strong and on the ground for an extended period of time," AccuWeather Meteorologist Andrew Johnson-Levine said.

All facets of severe weather will be possible into Wednesday night. AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gusts can approach 90 mph and can easily knock down trees and lead to power outages and property damage. However, forecasters warn that some tornadoes will be able to produce higher wind speeds than 90 mph. Hail reaching the size of golf balls and perhaps even baseballs is possible with this setup. An inch or two of rain can fall in an hour's time in a few cases, which can turn streets and low-lying rural roads into raging torrents of water.

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AccuWeather meteorologists have outlined an area from central Arkansas to central Illinois and southwestern Indiana where the greatest potential for multiple strong and long-lived tornadoes is most likely.

The zone on Wednesday evening is roughly the same area that was devastated by a tornado outbreak on Dec. 10-11, 2021. That outbreak, which spanned at least a dozen states spawned more than 100 tornadoes, according to preliminary reports, was blamed for dozens of fatalities. The strongest tornado, an EF4, was on the ground for more than 80 miles and crossed through the states of Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee.

This image shows the multi-tiered threat of severe weather for Wednesday and Wednesday night according to the Storm Prediction Center. The lowest tier (green) is a marginal threat, while a moderate risk (red) exists over the middle portion of the Mississippi Valley and the lower portion of the Ohio Valley.

Prior to this week, Chicago has experienced only one day so far this year where severe thunderstorms rolled through the metro area. That was back on March 10 when a storm system produced more than 250 reports of severe weather and included a few tornadoes in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.

A small separate pocket of locally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts, can evolve over parts of northern Pennsylvania, New York and Vermont into Wednesday evening as a surge of warm and humid air begins.

The risk of severe weather is likely to be substantially lower with the storm system on Thursday as colder, drier air will cut off the moisture supply to thunderstorms over the Central states.

However, one last round of locally severe thunderstorms may continue along the storm's cold front as it approaches the Atlantic seaboard. The greatest threats from the storms on Thursday will be strong wind gusts and hail. Still, a couple of isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

As the storms roll through the Central and Eastern states and pass through multiple major airline hubs, direct and ripple-effect delays and flight changes are likely across the nation as some crews and aircraft may become displaced by the storms. Due to the volatility of the atmosphere, some flights could be subject to a significant amount of turbulence.

The severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will be unleashed by the same massive storm system that will bring feet of snow and blizzard conditions to parts of the Rockies and northern Plains as well as high winds and extreme wildfire danger to parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains.

More to read:

Poll: 33% of Americans experienced extreme weather in last 2 years
How one pioneer earned the nickname 'Mr. Tornado'
Lightning strike survivors want others to learn from their experience

For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.

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