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News / Severe Weather

Mother's Day storm may bring a month's worth of rain to one corner of the US

By Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published May 7, 2020 10:38 AM EDT

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On May 6, a wildfire raged in Santa Rosa Beach, Florida, with smoke that could be seen from miles away.

The southern half of the Florida Peninsula will get hit hard with heavy rainfall on Mother's Day, with some areas likely to pick up a month's worth of rain in 24 hours.

Drought conditions have been expanding across Florida since the beginning of the year, with 78% of the state currently experiencing abnormal dryness to severe drought, compared to just 24% on Jan. 1, according to the United States Drought Monitor.

The dry ground, combined with gusty winds on Wednesday, caused several fires to flare up across the Florida Panhandle, prompting thousands to evacuate.

A storm first brought much-needed rain to South Texas, Friday night through Saturday, where severe to extreme drought is ongoing. By Sunday, the heavy rain made it to Florida.

Radar showed heavy rain targeting southern Florida and part of the Bahamas on Sunday, May 10.

A cold front dug into the area early Saturday and provided a few brief showers around the affected area that preceded the drenching rain that began on Sunday.

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"People accustomed to spending time outdoors on Mother's Day over the Florida Peninsula will instead be greeted with a day that is stormy and quite cool," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

Residents from Fort Myers to Port St. Lucie, West Palm Beach and Miami are likely to have several rounds of rain and thunderstorms into Saturday evening.

"Rainfall will be heavy enough to erase about one-third of the precipitation deficit in South Florida," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok.

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Rainfall over South Florida and the Keys could be excessive with a general 2-4 inches and perhaps an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 6 inches. Fort Myers typically receives 2.65 inches of rain during May, while Key West averages 3 inches and Miami averages 5.34 inches.

"Rainfall of this magnitude in a 24-hour period can lead to significant urban flooding, just like that of a tropical storm," Sosnowski said.

Motorists on stretches of interstates 75 and 95 across South Florida will want to use caution as pooling of water on the roadways will heighten the risk of hydroplaning while traveling at highway speeds. Secondary roadways that are completely covered with water should be avoided.

The heaviest rain may stay just south and east of Orlando, with only stray showers expected north of the city up to around Jacksonville. The western half of the Florida Panhandle where wildfires are burning will likely stay dry through the middle of the week.

Even after this storm has departed by early next week, lingering tropical moisture is likely to bring rounds of downpours to South Florida and the Keys into the middle of the month.

AccuWeather meteorologists, following this heavy rain, will be closely monitoring the Gulf of Mexico and the waters surrounding Florida for tropical development in the coming weeks. Some early-season tropical systems have formed along fronts draped over the warm Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Stream waters nearby in the past.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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