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More storms to drench northeastern US through week's end

By Nicole LoBiondo, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Sep 2, 2020 3:32 PM EDT

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A wet weather pattern that began earlier this week will persist across much of the northeastern United States through Thursday night and has the potential to trigger not only travel problems and flash flooding but also the risk for isolated damaging wind gusts.

A slow-moving cold front will be the main trigger for the downpours and locally gusty thunderstorms. Since the atmosphere is ripe with moisture, any downpour that lingers for more than several minutes will have the potential to set rapid urban and small stream flooding into motion.

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A cold front that approached the region on Wednesday is forecast to grind to a halt over the mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Any areas that remain in warm and humid air where the sun is able to emerge will be at risk for severe weather, through Thursday evening.

"Storms are expected to be confined to a small area from northern West Virginia to extreme southern Pennsylvania Thursday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer said. The air mass that will help keep humidity levels high across northern West Virginia to Washington, D.C., and into Philadelphia will provide the ingredients for heavy downpours and potentially severe thunderstorms. In any severe thunderstorm, flooding downpours and damaging wind gusts with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph can occur.

As with any severe thunderstorm, there is a slight risk that isolated tornadoes could touch down.

"The same setup, that produced a few tornadoes in Arkansas on Tuesday, could occur in a couple of locations of the Northeast through Thursday," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

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"There would need to be some daytime heating for that to occur and cloud cover will be an issue preventing much of a build of warmth, but a couple of pockets of sufficient warmth can occur as a weak disturbance moves along the front," Sosnowski explained.

As we approach the weekend in the Northeast, the front will get a push from high pressure from the Midwest. Humidity levels will drop significantly across the region with refreshing and dry conditions in store.

However, the drier conditions may not last long. Wet weather may return early next week. During much of next week, a dip in the jet stream will set up over the Central states, which will allow a southwesterly flow of air that is capable of bringing not only warmth and higher humidity levels back to the Eastern region but also the potential for more showers and thunderstorms.

"The same pattern for next week opens the door for any tropical systems that may lurk in the Gulf of Mexico or the western Atlantic to potentially eye the Eastern Seaboard," Sosnowski said.

AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring tropical disturbances originating from the west coast of Africa in the coming weeks. Some of these may wander toward the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico or the far western Atlantic Ocean.

This past summer has brought a stark contrast in wet versus dry conditions across the Northeast. Some areas have been excessively wet this summer, and the ground is nearly saturated.

Wet weather along areas of the I-95 corridor from New York City to Richmond, Virginia, has been abundant since Aug. 1, 2020. Most cities along this corridor picked up more than the normal monthly rainfall totals, and in some cases, three times the normal rainfall amount for the month of August.

However, there have been extensive areas where rain has been lacking and lawns have suffered while stream and small lake levels have plummeted.

Rain will be welcomed in portions of New England and western Pennsylvania as most of the region is in a drought situation. As observed from the U.S. Drought Monitor for the Northeast, areas in northern Maine and southern New Hampshire are in severe drought while the remainder of the region is in a moderate drought.

In addition to patterns of drought and excess rainfall, this summer was one of the hottest on record in parts of the region. In fact, cities such as Burlington, Vermont, and State College, Williamsport and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, had their hottest summer ever.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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