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Forecasters have better news for waterlogged south-central US

By Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Updated Jun 8, 2021 8:47 AM EDT

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Monday brought more storms throughout Texas, Oklahoma and surrounding states, marking one more day in a long series of stormy ones in the area that have steadily raised water levels to a near-constant flood risk.

AccuWeather meteorologists have some good news for an area of the country that has dealt with seemingly relentless downpours and flooding problems since May. A shift in the weather pattern will bring drier weather to Texas and Louisiana as downpours shift farther north and east throughout the week.

Rainfall has been measured in feet since May 1 from Victoria to McAllen, Texas, as well as into portions of southwestern Louisiana such as Lake Charles. A stagnant weather pattern that pulled in tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico contributed to the impressive totals. On average, these areas receive half a foot of rainfall or less during this time period.

A slow-moving storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere brought additional downpours to these areas during the first days of June.

Houston recorded nearly 5 inches of rainfall during June 2-3 alone, an amount that the city typically achieves during the entire month. Victoria received 5.05 inches of rain during June 1-5, which already exceeds its average for the month of 4.46 inches.

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Fortunately, with the heavy rainfall coming over several days and not all at once, there have been few new incidents of flooding in recent days. Still, forecasters say it is not yet time for residents and visitors to let their guard down.

The slow-moving upper-level storm is likely to continue to generate scattered showers and heavier thunderstorms on a daily basis early this week across portions of northern and eastern Texas and Louisiana.

"Any heavier downpours that occur will still carry the risk of flash flooding due to how abnormally wet it has been," AccuWeather Meteorologist Isaac Longley said.

Thunderstorms rumbled through northeastern Texas and into Louisiana and Arkansas into Monday night.

Forecasters say the downpours will not just be confined to these states. In fact, the more concentrated areas of heavy rainfall are expected to shift farther north and east across the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio valleys into the middle of the week.

Widespread downpours had already begun to target Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee on Sunday, leading to a soggy end to the weekend. Storms moved eastward into the Florida Panhandle Sunday night.

As the zone of stormy weather shifts farther north and east as the week progresses, the pattern will offer a reprieve for the hardest-hit areas of Texas and Louisiana, following the scattered downpours early this week.

An area of high pressure will build over northern Mexico and extend into the southern Plains by midweek, which will help to suppress most thunderstorm activity through the the end of the week and into next weekend, according to Longley.

The drier days will not only allow still swollen rivers to recede, but also offer up more opportunities for people to get outside and do some yard work, exercise or go to the beach.

This drier pattern may linger into the middle of June, according to AccuWeather's long-range forecasting team, as the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic and Southeast coast is expected to become the more active corridor for frequent storms.

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Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.

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