Northeast's weather fate this week depends on dry air wedge
The fate of the dry and comfortable weather in the Northeast this week will depend on how well a dry air wedge pushes off showers and thunderstorms to the south.
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Following temperatures and humidity levels more typical of late September or early October into early Monday, the fate of the Northeast's weather for much of the week will depend on how well a wedge of dry air can fend off gathering moisture in the Southern states.
There's no question a large bubble of high pressure will continue to keep the Northeast dry and cool into Monday, compared to how humid and stormy much of the summer has been.
Cool to rule into Monday
Low temperatures will bottom out in the 40s over the mountains with a few traditional spots to dip into the 30s into Monday morning.
Daytime highs will generally be in the 70s over the mountains. In many of the interior valley cities, major metro areas and beach communities, lows will be in the 60s with highs in the 80s on Monday. The air will feel very cool in the shade or when you step out of the pool or surf.
But, where's the deep blue sky?
The only oddity from the perception of how the air mass feels versus looks will be the appearance of the sky. Typically, during Canadian air outbreaks such as this, the sky is a deep blue. But, as AccuWeather pointed out before the official start of the summer, a deep blue sky would be hard to come by due to raging fires in central Canada and the smoke drifting across the Midwest and Northeast at various levels of the atmosphere. The smoke in the Northeast can be thick at times which can cause reduced air quality, but it will be responsible for the hazy, heat wave appearance, regardless of how cool or warm it is outside.
When the flow from Canada is turned off, and a southerly flow dominates, the typical haze associated with higher humidity levels will take over as moisture filters in from the Gulf and the Atlantic. The deprivation of a deep blue sky will generally continue unless a deep tropical air mass is able to move in with a clearer sky.
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Smoke in the Midwest will be lower-flying and pose a problem at times for those with respiratory problems.
The weather pattern this week
The nice round shape of the high pressure area from the weekend will change during the upcoming week. As the high becomes elongated and convoluted, pockets of dry air will remain, but pockets of moisture from the Southern states and the Atlantic may make substantial northward progress as well.
Dry and sunny conditions are most likely to persist much of the week over New England and upstate New York and will present a great opportunity for outdoor projects.
However, farther south for the mid-Atlantic, where a wedge of dry air versus a moist wedge sets up this week, will be critical as to how soon higher humidity levels return as well as clouds and potential downpours.
Data suggests that dry air and rain-free conditions may persist in either the Appalachians or the mid-Atlantic coast, but probably not both. It is possible that the forecast of downpours (or not) farther south may change over time as the pattern evolves. Rain-free weather may persist for a few more days in part of this zone.
As the air in place grows more stale, humidity levels will tend to slowly creep back up, but probably not to midsummer levels or at least to levels experienced much of the summer.
AccuWeather meteorologists will be tracking Tropical Storm Dexter off the Atlantic coast during the first week of August. Dexter is expected to stay well north of Bermuda while heading farther out to sea.
Two additional areas near the coast will be monitored for potential tropical development during the first weeks of August.
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