Flooding to remain a concern beyond Memorial Day weekend in Plains
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated May 30, 2021 1:01 PM EDT
Despite fast-moving floodwaters overtaking this highway in Joplin, Missouri, traffic moves anyway as motorists plow through the flash flooding on May 27.
AccuWeather meteorologists warn that more trouble is brewing for part of the south-central United States, and not just over the Memorial Day weekend. Downpours and thunderstorms will repeat and not only raise the risk of severe weather, but also the potential for more flooding during the first week of June.
"There is the potential for a localized deluges from portions of eastern Colorado to central Kansas, southward to western and central Oklahoma and northwestern and central Texas through at least this weekend," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
The severe weather kicked off on Friday, with reports of hail scattered through Texas and New Mexico, reaching the size of ping pong balls, golf balls and even a handful of reports of baseball-sized hail. By Friday evening, a tornado was reported in Colfax, County, New Mexico, and damaging storms tore through portions of Austin and San Antonio, Texas.
Severe weather continued to cause issues on Saturday as hail and several tornadoes were reported. Three of the four reported tornadoes on Saturday came out of Cimarron County, Oklahoma.
Additional risks for severe thunderstorms will develop into the early week as storms redevelop each afternoon and then progress south and east into the night. As these storms continue to develop and move over the same areas, a more widespread threat for heavy rain and flooding will develop.
"While there will be pockets of severe thunderstorms on a daily basis over parts of the South Central states, the main threat moving forward will be from flash flooding," Rayno added.
Cumulative rainfall through Sunday could top 6 inches and may approach 10 inches into Tuesday in some areas, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 inches. It is possible that much of this rain may fall over the course of several hours.
Even though some western areas of Texas and Oklahoma are in need of rain, based on information from the latest United States Drought Monitor, forecasters expect the rain to fall too fast which will likely lead to incidents of flash flooding.
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The wet and unsettled conditions are being caused by two main weather patterns. One system is a front that is forecast to stall from near the upper Gulf Coast to the southern Plains and the central High Plains through the weekend. The second pattern is associated with slow-moving disturbances that are forecast to drift eastward from the Rockies.
"While the frontal zone will be the mechanism for showers and thunderstorms to form and repeat, the disturbances moving eastward through this zone can enhance the storms and the rainfall," Rayno explained.
The Houston metro area has received between 8 and 12 inches of rain as of May 27. This is at least double the area's monthly average of 4-5 inches. Farther to the east, the Beaumont and Port Arthur areas of Texas have picked up more than 15 inches of rain in May and Lake Charles, Louisiana, has been swamped by more than 20 inches of rain since May 10.
The rainfall earlier in the month pushed streams and rivers out of their banks from southeastern Texas to Louisiana and parts of Arkansas and Oklahoma.
While many rivers were slowly receding as of the end of May, many were also still well above flood stage. The Trinity River at Liberty, Texas, is forecast to continue to rise into the early week and reach major flood stage at just above 29 feet, according to hydrological information from the National Weather Service.
Any additional rain can slow the rate of recession of some of these rivers. The elevated state of streams and wet ground can expedite and worsen flash and urban flooding.
As wet weather got under way Friday evening, severe thunderstorms began to race through the greater Austin metro area as well as downtown Austin itself. Strong wind gusts in excess of 60 mph tore across the area, leading to structural damage and power outages. Friday night, more than 36,000 customers were without power in Travis County, Texas, alone, according to PowerOutage.US. Just one country southeast, a tornado was reported and the National Weather Service (NWS) urged residents to take cover.
Severe thunderstorms quickly developed and tracked farther south, impacting the San Antonio area on Friday night. San Antonio International Airport recorded a wind gust of 77 mph as damaging storms pushed through the area. An additional 31,000 customers lost power Friday night in Bexar County, Texas. Statewide, power outages peaked at just over 160,000 customers as the clock struck midnight.
The pattern moving forward during the first week of June looks to be complex. There is the likelihood of downpours extending farther to the east into areas of the Central states that will be mainly dry over the Memorial Day weekend. There is also the risk of more downpours falling on areas saturated by rain earlier in May, more recently this past week and again over the holiday weekend.
"The key will be exactly where a strong disturbance, or dip in the jet stream, travels upon being ejected from the Rockies this week," Rayno said.
If that feature pushes out well to the south, it could unleash heavy rainfall and an elevated risk of flash flooding and perhaps renewed river flooding in parts of eastern Texas and Louisiana.
"Right now, it looks like the path of that disturbance this week will be farther north and east than what we have seen this past week, so perhaps instead of the southern Plains, it might end up taking aim more at the Midwest instead," Rayno said.
Texas and Louisiana have not been the only locations hit hard by heavy rain during May. From Wednesday to Thursday, torrential rain triggered urban flooding from Missouri to Oklahoma.
Some select rainfall totals across parts of the central U.S. on May 26-27.
The Oklahoma City metro area was hit with torrential downpours and flash flooding as up to a few inches of rain fell in a couple of hours during Thursday evening.
The Dallas metro area has received about 140% of its average rainfall as of May 28 and will be on the fringe of heavy rain and flash flood potential through the early week
The persistent zone of clouds, showers and thunderstorms will tend to suppress temperatures in parts of the central Rockies and Plains.
"Denver may have its coolest Memorial Day since 1997 if temperatures fail to climb past the middle 50s F," AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor Jesse Ferrell stated.
Meanwhile, portions of the Northeast may be in a similar boat, so to speak, as an unseasonably cold storm brings rain and record-breaking low maximum temperatures into Sunday. Farther to the west, much of the swath from Utah and western New Mexico to California simply cannot buy a drop of rain as drought continues to build along with an increased wildfire threat.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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News / Severe Weather
Flooding to remain a concern beyond Memorial Day weekend in Plains
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated May 30, 2021 1:01 PM EDT
Despite fast-moving floodwaters overtaking this highway in Joplin, Missouri, traffic moves anyway as motorists plow through the flash flooding on May 27.
AccuWeather meteorologists warn that more trouble is brewing for part of the south-central United States, and not just over the Memorial Day weekend. Downpours and thunderstorms will repeat and not only raise the risk of severe weather, but also the potential for more flooding during the first week of June.
"There is the potential for a localized deluges from portions of eastern Colorado to central Kansas, southward to western and central Oklahoma and northwestern and central Texas through at least this weekend," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
The severe weather kicked off on Friday, with reports of hail scattered through Texas and New Mexico, reaching the size of ping pong balls, golf balls and even a handful of reports of baseball-sized hail. By Friday evening, a tornado was reported in Colfax, County, New Mexico, and damaging storms tore through portions of Austin and San Antonio, Texas.
Severe weather continued to cause issues on Saturday as hail and several tornadoes were reported. Three of the four reported tornadoes on Saturday came out of Cimarron County, Oklahoma.
Additional risks for severe thunderstorms will develop into the early week as storms redevelop each afternoon and then progress south and east into the night. As these storms continue to develop and move over the same areas, a more widespread threat for heavy rain and flooding will develop.
"While there will be pockets of severe thunderstorms on a daily basis over parts of the South Central states, the main threat moving forward will be from flash flooding," Rayno added.
Cumulative rainfall through Sunday could top 6 inches and may approach 10 inches into Tuesday in some areas, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 inches. It is possible that much of this rain may fall over the course of several hours.
Even though some western areas of Texas and Oklahoma are in need of rain, based on information from the latest United States Drought Monitor, forecasters expect the rain to fall too fast which will likely lead to incidents of flash flooding.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The wet and unsettled conditions are being caused by two main weather patterns. One system is a front that is forecast to stall from near the upper Gulf Coast to the southern Plains and the central High Plains through the weekend. The second pattern is associated with slow-moving disturbances that are forecast to drift eastward from the Rockies.
"While the frontal zone will be the mechanism for showers and thunderstorms to form and repeat, the disturbances moving eastward through this zone can enhance the storms and the rainfall," Rayno explained.
The Houston metro area has received between 8 and 12 inches of rain as of May 27. This is at least double the area's monthly average of 4-5 inches. Farther to the east, the Beaumont and Port Arthur areas of Texas have picked up more than 15 inches of rain in May and Lake Charles, Louisiana, has been swamped by more than 20 inches of rain since May 10.
The rainfall earlier in the month pushed streams and rivers out of their banks from southeastern Texas to Louisiana and parts of Arkansas and Oklahoma.
While many rivers were slowly receding as of the end of May, many were also still well above flood stage. The Trinity River at Liberty, Texas, is forecast to continue to rise into the early week and reach major flood stage at just above 29 feet, according to hydrological information from the National Weather Service.
Any additional rain can slow the rate of recession of some of these rivers. The elevated state of streams and wet ground can expedite and worsen flash and urban flooding.
As wet weather got under way Friday evening, severe thunderstorms began to race through the greater Austin metro area as well as downtown Austin itself. Strong wind gusts in excess of 60 mph tore across the area, leading to structural damage and power outages. Friday night, more than 36,000 customers were without power in Travis County, Texas, alone, according to PowerOutage.US. Just one country southeast, a tornado was reported and the National Weather Service (NWS) urged residents to take cover.
Severe thunderstorms quickly developed and tracked farther south, impacting the San Antonio area on Friday night. San Antonio International Airport recorded a wind gust of 77 mph as damaging storms pushed through the area. An additional 31,000 customers lost power Friday night in Bexar County, Texas. Statewide, power outages peaked at just over 160,000 customers as the clock struck midnight.
The pattern moving forward during the first week of June looks to be complex. There is the likelihood of downpours extending farther to the east into areas of the Central states that will be mainly dry over the Memorial Day weekend. There is also the risk of more downpours falling on areas saturated by rain earlier in May, more recently this past week and again over the holiday weekend.
"The key will be exactly where a strong disturbance, or dip in the jet stream, travels upon being ejected from the Rockies this week," Rayno said.
If that feature pushes out well to the south, it could unleash heavy rainfall and an elevated risk of flash flooding and perhaps renewed river flooding in parts of eastern Texas and Louisiana.
"Right now, it looks like the path of that disturbance this week will be farther north and east than what we have seen this past week, so perhaps instead of the southern Plains, it might end up taking aim more at the Midwest instead," Rayno said.
Texas and Louisiana have not been the only locations hit hard by heavy rain during May. From Wednesday to Thursday, torrential rain triggered urban flooding from Missouri to Oklahoma.
Some select rainfall totals across parts of the central U.S. on May 26-27.
The Oklahoma City metro area was hit with torrential downpours and flash flooding as up to a few inches of rain fell in a couple of hours during Thursday evening.
The Dallas metro area has received about 140% of its average rainfall as of May 28 and will be on the fringe of heavy rain and flash flood potential through the early week
The persistent zone of clouds, showers and thunderstorms will tend to suppress temperatures in parts of the central Rockies and Plains.
"Denver may have its coolest Memorial Day since 1997 if temperatures fail to climb past the middle 50s F," AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor Jesse Ferrell stated.
Meanwhile, portions of the Northeast may be in a similar boat, so to speak, as an unseasonably cold storm brings rain and record-breaking low maximum temperatures into Sunday. Farther to the west, much of the swath from Utah and western New Mexico to California simply cannot buy a drop of rain as drought continues to build along with an increased wildfire threat.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo