Active severe weather pattern continues across central US
AccuWeather meteorologists say there is the potential that one or more long-lived thunderstorm complexes could rumble across the center of the country this week.
AccuWeather meteorologists say complexes of thunderstorms, high winds and flooding rainfall are possible from the central Plains to the Mississippi Valley this week.
The summer has been an active one when it comes to severe weather, especially over the central United States. AccuWeather meteorologists continue to warn of an ongoing severe thunderstorm threat for the region this week and say that complexes of thunderstorms are likely along with the risk of high winds and flooding rainfall from portions of the central Plains to the Mississippi Valley.
Over the past 10 years, there have been an average of 19,700 incidents of severe weather per year across the U.S., according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). But over a recent stretch from June 1 through July 10, there have been more than 7,300 incidents of severe weather ranging from tornadoes to high winds and hail. That's about 37% of the annual average in 40 days. The majority of these incidents have occurred west of the Appalachians and east of the Rockies.
The driving force behind the severe weather in recent weeks has been a dome of high pressure over Texas and an active jet stream pattern across the northern half of the nation, AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said.
"Even though the high pressure area and associated heat dome will tend to migrate farther west this week, the jet stream will remain very active across the north," DaSilva stated. Thunderstorms spawned by ripples in the jet stream will be given a boost by the heat to the south and southwest.
Thunderstorms will tend to erupt on the rim of the heat from the Rockies to the Appalachians. However, on one or more occasions, thunderstorms will group into complexes that can travel for dozens and perhaps hundreds of miles.
When a thunderstorm complex produces consistent wind damage along a swath at least 400 miles long and 60 miles wide, it is called a derecho, according to NOAA.
Storms that erupted late Monday rolled southeastward across Oklahoma during early Tuesday morning. There have been rainfall reports in excess of 5 inches north of Oklahoma City. The complex of storms diminished as it pushed into northern Louisiana during Tuesday afternoon.
AccuWeather meteorologists continued to track a complex of severe thunderstorms that began in parts of South Dakota Tuesday night. Severe storms rolled through Omaha, Nebraska and continued on to Des Moines, Iowa, Wednesday morning. Even as this complex may break down into Wednesday afternoon, new storms will erupt on the edges of the feature and may evolve into one or more new complexes of severe thunderstorms.
The zone from eastern Kansas to southern Wisconsin and western Tennessee will be at risk for severe weather into Wednesday night. This includes the major metro areas of Chicago, St. Louis, and Kansas City, Missouri.
There is not only a moderate risk of thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts from the central Plains to the middle part of the Mississippi Valley but also the likelihood of heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding.
There is the potential for several inches to half a foot of rain to fall in the region. Some locations could receive a couple of inches of rain over the course of an hour.
St. Louis is one of the major metro areas that may be in the path of dangerous and disruptive storms into Wednesday night.
It was about a year ago, on July 26, 2022, when St. Louis was hit by repeating thunderstorms that dumped 8–12 inches of rain in eight hours and triggered severe flooding around the city and surrounding areas.
At the very least, travelers should expect significant delays and possible road closures, while people spending time outdoors may need to seek shelter as storms approach the St. Louis area and other locations.
Even though Chicago and Indianapolis may dodge the worst of the severe weather, there is still the likelihood of locally drenching showers and perhaps a locally severe thunderstorm into Wednesday night. Severe storms could take a turn toward Kansas City, Missouri, or Memphis, Tennessee, as well.
The risk of severe weather will extend beyond the middle of the week in the Central states.
Forecasters tracking severe storm potential in parts of East
Little may change in the overall severe weather potential for the latter part of the week and the weekend in the Central states. However, as drier air presses farther to the south, the zone of severe thunderstorms and the potential for a derecho may shift farther south as well. Areas from the Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley may end up with multiple rounds of severe weather.
After a brief break from severe weather and flooding rain on Tuesday and Wednesday in the Northeast, rounds of thunderstorms are likely to return later this week and continue into next week, AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
"Severe thunderstorms are possible in the pattern for the Northeast from Thursday to Sunday as ripples in the jet stream encounter warm and humid air," Buckingham said. "In addition to the threat of severe weather, more locally heavy rain is likely with the potential for new and renewed flooding as well."
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