Increasing risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding in the Caribbean from Tropical Storm Melissa
AccuWeather® Global Weather Center – Oct. 21, 2025 - AccuWeather® hurricane experts say Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to strengthen in the Caribbean and bring heavy rainfall, potentially life-threatening and catastrophic flooding, and damaging winds to parts of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Cuba, and the southern Bahamas starting later this week. Rain and wind is also expected to impact parts of Puerto Rico.
UPDATE 6 PM ET:
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AccuWeather hurricane experts are warning of an extreme risk to lives and property in parts of Haiti and Jamaica from Tropical Storm Melissa.
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AccuWeather hurricane experts have upgraded Melissa to a 4 for the western Caribbean and a 1 for Puerto Rico on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes, due to the increasing risk of widespread life-threatening flooding, rain, mudslides, and strong winds in the region, to give people and businesses the most advance warning.
“A tropical storm or hurricane making landfall on or near these islands will produce life-threatening impacts, including flooding rainfall, damaging winds and storm surge. If confidence in the risk for a life-threatening, catastrophic flooding disaster increases, evacuations of people may become necessary, especially in the greatest risk areas — for people near creeks, streams, rivers and other bodies of water, as well as near steep terrain where damaging mudslides are more likely,” AccuWeather® Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. “Should the storm slow down considerably and dwell over parts of the Caribbean islands for a day or more, a life-threatening, catastrophic flooding disaster would become inevitable. This can quickly escalate into a humanitarian crisis, where there is a large number of people in need of basic supplies such as food, safe drinking water, housing, and medical care.”
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> Rainfall amounts of 8-16 inches can occur in Haiti, eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and southwestern portions of the Dominican Republic, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 30 inches
> AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter warns that if the storm slows or stalls near the islands, there may be a flooding disaster that could escalate to a humanitarian crisis
> Due to life-threatening flooding, mudslides, damaging winds and power outages, Tropical Storm Melissa is a two on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for the Caribbean
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“There is also another scenario where the storm tracks farther west and does not turn toward Hispaniola. In this case, the major flood risk across the island would be much lower. This westward track scenario would greatly increase the risk for strong winds and flooding across Jamaica and potentially Cuba or even parts of Central America,” Porter said.
“AccuWeather hurricane experts are increasingly concerned about the potential for a life-threatening, catastrophic flooding disaster across parts of the Caribbean, especially near steep terrain across parts of Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic, should the storm move north and slow down considerably,” Porter said. "If Melissa were to stall near the coast of one or more of the Greater Antilles, there could be a historic flooding disaster in that region due to repeated rounds of torrential tropical downpours. These communities are especially vulnerable to flooding, as seen in major flooding disasters in this area, including Hurricane Flora in 1963, which tragically claimed over 7,000 lives. More recently, in May 2004, devastating floods occurred across Hispaniola when nearly 20 inches of rain fell. While not from a tropical storm or hurricane, this is yet another example of the flood risk in the Caribbean.”
"Without trees across Haiti to help absorb some of the rain, days of tropical rainfall would bring an extreme risk for mudslides and life-threatening flooding," AccuWeather® Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "While we think that the chances of a direct U.S. hit from this storm are low right now, it's still on the table should Melissa make it into the western Caribbean.”
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AccuWeather® hurricane experts say the chance of a direct United Statesâ¯hit from this storm are low right now, but it's still on the table should Melissa make it into the western Atlantic.
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Historically, tropical systems that reach the western Caribbean in October are more likely to be steered away from places like Texas and Louisiana. But the eastern United States andâ¯Florida in particular can still be impacted by intense storms.
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If the storm drifts west in the Caribbean through the weekend and then turns north over Cuba next week, there is the possibility that it could bring at least rough surf to the East Coast of the U.S. If it were to track close to the coast, it could bring rain and gusty winds as well.
AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes
In contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpactTMâ¯Scale is based on a broad range of important factors. In order to better communicate a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm to lives and livelihoods, the scale covers not only wind speed but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss. Some of these hazards, such as inland flooding and storm surge in many storms, result in more deaths and economic loss than wind.
Additional AccuWeather® Resources:
Caribbean bracing for future hurricane as Tropical Storm Melissa forms
Survey shows age divide in planning for storms
AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes
AccuWeather Ready: Hurricane Season Safety & Preparedness Information
AccuWeather Hurricane Tracker: Melissa
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