Tropical Storm Melissa to become major hurricane in Caribbean with intense winds, flooding rain
As Tropical Storm Melissa crawls through the Caribbean, it will strengthen to a hurricane and unleash torrential rain that may trigger major to extreme flooding and mudslides, endangering lives and property.
AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on Oct. 23 to discuss the latest on Melissa.
Tropical Storm Melissa is gaining strength over the Caribbean and is forecast to evolve into a powerful, slow-moving hurricane that will unleash significant flooding and destructive winds on a region that has largely avoided any tropical activity so far this Atlantic hurricane season.
A hurricane watch is in effect for part of Haiti, while a tropical storm watch is in effect for Jamaica. Melissa was drifting west-northwest at 3 mph with maximum sustained winds up to 50 mph as of Thursday morning.
"The longer Melissa tracks to the west, the greater the chance of an impact on the U.S.," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "More of a westward track would tend to spare Hispaniola from the heaviest rain and flooding."
"The chances of a direct U.S. hit from Melissa are low right now, but it is still an option, should the tropical system make it into the western Caribbean," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva added.
This image of Tropical Storm Melissa in the Caribbean was captured Wednesday morning, Oct. 22, 2025. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
The U.S. concern for impacts will be in the Florida Peninsula, especially the lower portion of the Peninsula and the Keys. Strong westerly winds, driven by the jet stream, should prevent the storm from tracking into Texas, Louisiana and the panhandles of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida next week.
"There is some wind shear (disruptive breezes) that was holding the intensity of Melissa back right now and perhaps in the future," Rayno said. "However, water temperatures in the path of Melissa in the Caribbean are in the upper 80s F." The approximate minimum temperature for tropical development is 78-80 degrees Fahrenheit.
DaSilva compared the effect of wind shear on tropical storms to a stack of pancakes.
"You want a nicely stacked set of pancakes and not one that is leaning to the edge," DaSilva said, "Wind shear causes that stack, or the vertical structure of the tropical storm, to lean to one side and that is what is going on with Melissa at midweek due to westerly wind shear. The low-level center of the storm is on the western side of the mass of thunderstorms and that is inhibiting rapid strengthening at this time."
Steering breezes will sooner or later grab onto the storm in the Caribbean and pull it northward. Areas from Hispaniola to Cuba and Jamaica are the initial population centers that would be first affected by the storm's heavy rain, strong winds and building seas.
Melissa will bring heavy rain and the risk of flash flooding and mudslides for the Greater Antilles.
The islands in the northern Caribbean that will be affected the most by the storm will highly depend on how far west the storm travels and then turns to the north.
The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the western Caribbean due to Melissa is four. In Puerto Rico, the RealImpact is one.
This scale, developed by AccuWeather, takes into account much more than the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which only measures wind intensity. The RealImpact™ Scale considers the economic impact, the population affected and the effects of wind, storm surge, mudslides and flooding rainfall.
The islands of Hispaniola and Cuba are mountainous, which will tend to lower the intensity of Melissa, but would also wring out excess moisture in the form of torrential rain. Slow movement and terrain effects could lead to feet of rain and life-threatening to catastrophic flooding and mudslides.
There is currently an extensive area where 4-8 inches of rain may fall, with areas where 12-18 inches are anticipated in far southwestern Haiti, the far southern Dominican Republic, Jamaica and the southeastern coast of Cuba, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 30 inches.
Melissa may spend many days in the Caribbean. If the center manages to avoid land for a time, it is forecsat to become a major hurricane.
The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust for the storm is currently 150 mph, and that is dependent on the core of the storm remaining off the coast of Jamaica. Should Melissa track onshore in Jamaica, top winds could be much stronger for the land mass. AccuWeather meteorologists expect Melissa to become a major hurricane and could reach Category 4 or 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, should the storm stay away from land while over the western Caribbean for a time.
Many hours and days of strong winds can take a toll on trees, poorly constructed buildings and electrical power in the region.
Cruise, fishing and beach resort interests should take note, as conditions at sea and along the coast in the Caribbean may be stormy and dangerous for days, following a relatively tranquil summer and early autumn in the region.
If Melissa survives beyond the Greater Antilles, how well it survives will determine the magnitude of the impacts in the Bahamas and perhaps South Florida. Just as in the Caribbean, the magnitude of the impacts in these more northern areas will depend on the storm's track and ability to rebound.
As for areas farther to the north along the U.S. East Coast, there is some risk of impacts, even if the center remains at sea. In one scenario, a non-tropical storm and front, associated with a dip in the jet stream, may work together to enhance rain, wind and seas along the Eastern Seaboard during the last few days of the month.
Even if the two features fail to interact directly and the tropical storm heads out to sea, there can still be a dose of heavy rain, wind and rough seas for a time along part of the U.S. East Coast near the end of October.
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