Will the Atlantic basin churn out yet another storm this week?
By
Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist &
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Oct 11, 2020 1:33 PM EST
AccuWeather’s Bill Wadell joined one family returning to their home in Lake Charles after it was damaged again by back-to-back hurricanes.
As Delta's rain spreads across the eastern United States, AccuWeather meteorologists are turning their attention to a tropical wave cruising across the tropical Atlantic this week.
As of Tuesday morning, the tropical wave was centered around 600 miles east of the Windward Islands and was moving to the west.
Satellite imagery revealed that the feature was producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity and had yet to form a circulation center at the low levels of the atmosphere, an indication of strengthening.
This image, captured on Monday afternoon, October 12, 1020, shows a tropical disturbance over the central Atlantic, northeast of the northern coast of South America. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
"This tropical wave will move to the west-northwest into the middle of the week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike Doll said.
"It will reach the Lesser Antilles Wednesday, then the far eastern Caribbean by Thursday," Doll said.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
A track into the Caribbean would bring areas of tropical downpours and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, and if the storm is able to strengthen, it could bring stronger wind gusts to the region.
However, forecasters say there are a couple of hurdles for this wave to overcome before it can develop -- one being strong westerly wind shear.
Wind shear is the increase in wind speed with altitude as well as the change in wind direction from one location to another. Strong wind shear can prevent tropical waves from fully developing.
In addition, pockets of dry air across the tropical Atlantic could get embedded into the wave, decreasing shower and thunderstorm activity and lessening the risk for tropical development.
"As a result, the chance of this feature developing into a tropical system is low in the short to intermediate term" Doll said.
Looking ahead, the area to watch will may again be over the western part of the Caribbean.
"There is some indication for a gyre to form this weekend to early next week around Central America," according to AccuWeather's to hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
A gyre is a large, but very slowly spinning area of low pressure that can promote rising air and showers and thunderstorms.
AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring waters around Central America to the western Caribbean for potential tropical development next week.
"Westerly winds will be increasing over much of the southern and eastern United States and should act as a deterrent for threats of landfall from tropical systems later in October," Kottlowski said.
"However, there is room for any tropical feature that develops in the central to western Caribbean to move northward and possibly threaten Cuba, the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas later during the third week or the fourth week of this month," he added.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, there are no other areas currently being monitored for tropical activity, but forecasters say there is still a ways to go before one can call it quits on the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.
Thus far, there have been 25 named storms in the Atlantic basin. AccuWeather meteorologists predict that 2020 will tie the previous seasonal record set with a total of 28 named storms now projected. The record-setting 28 named storms was set during the historic 2005 hurricane season which churned out powerhouse hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. That season was also the only other year in which Greek letters had to be used, with storms Alpha to Zeta being named.
This year, more storms are likely to be given Greek letters for names in the coming weeks and perhaps even into December, beyond the official end of the Atlantic hurricane season on Nov. 30.
The next two storms that reach tropical storm strength, which is when sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph, will be given the names Epsilon and Zeta.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Hurricane
Will the Atlantic basin churn out yet another storm this week?
By Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist & Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Oct 11, 2020 1:33 PM EST
AccuWeather’s Bill Wadell joined one family returning to their home in Lake Charles after it was damaged again by back-to-back hurricanes.
As Delta's rain spreads across the eastern United States, AccuWeather meteorologists are turning their attention to a tropical wave cruising across the tropical Atlantic this week.
As of Tuesday morning, the tropical wave was centered around 600 miles east of the Windward Islands and was moving to the west.
Satellite imagery revealed that the feature was producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity and had yet to form a circulation center at the low levels of the atmosphere, an indication of strengthening.
This image, captured on Monday afternoon, October 12, 1020, shows a tropical disturbance over the central Atlantic, northeast of the northern coast of South America. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
"This tropical wave will move to the west-northwest into the middle of the week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike Doll said.
"It will reach the Lesser Antilles Wednesday, then the far eastern Caribbean by Thursday," Doll said.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
A track into the Caribbean would bring areas of tropical downpours and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, and if the storm is able to strengthen, it could bring stronger wind gusts to the region.
However, forecasters say there are a couple of hurdles for this wave to overcome before it can develop -- one being strong westerly wind shear.
Wind shear is the increase in wind speed with altitude as well as the change in wind direction from one location to another. Strong wind shear can prevent tropical waves from fully developing.
In addition, pockets of dry air across the tropical Atlantic could get embedded into the wave, decreasing shower and thunderstorm activity and lessening the risk for tropical development.
"As a result, the chance of this feature developing into a tropical system is low in the short to intermediate term" Doll said.
Looking ahead, the area to watch will may again be over the western part of the Caribbean.
"There is some indication for a gyre to form this weekend to early next week around Central America," according to AccuWeather's to hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
A gyre is a large, but very slowly spinning area of low pressure that can promote rising air and showers and thunderstorms.
AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring waters around Central America to the western Caribbean for potential tropical development next week.
"Westerly winds will be increasing over much of the southern and eastern United States and should act as a deterrent for threats of landfall from tropical systems later in October," Kottlowski said.
Related:
"However, there is room for any tropical feature that develops in the central to western Caribbean to move northward and possibly threaten Cuba, the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas later during the third week or the fourth week of this month," he added.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, there are no other areas currently being monitored for tropical activity, but forecasters say there is still a ways to go before one can call it quits on the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.
Thus far, there have been 25 named storms in the Atlantic basin. AccuWeather meteorologists predict that 2020 will tie the previous seasonal record set with a total of 28 named storms now projected. The record-setting 28 named storms was set during the historic 2005 hurricane season which churned out powerhouse hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. That season was also the only other year in which Greek letters had to be used, with storms Alpha to Zeta being named.
This year, more storms are likely to be given Greek letters for names in the coming weeks and perhaps even into December, beyond the official end of the Atlantic hurricane season on Nov. 30.
The next two storms that reach tropical storm strength, which is when sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph, will be given the names Epsilon and Zeta.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo