Franklin to strengthen and take swipe at Bermuda, then Atlantic Canada

Franklin will quickly strengthen as it turns northward on a path that will take it near Bermuda as a potent hurricane early next week, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. A track near Atlantic Canada will follow.

Franklin will gain strength and become a hurricane for the first time this weekend, before making a close pass near Bermuda early next week and an encounter with Atlantic Canada later next week, AccuWeather meteorologists say.

Franklin brought torrential rain and flash flooding to the large island of Hispaniola in the Caribbean with the worst conditions in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday.

"Franklin's intensity could ramp up quickly and significantly as the tropical system takes a northward turn south of Bermuda this weekend," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.

Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical system's sustained winds increase by 35 mph or more in 24 hours or less.

AccuWeather's forecasting team is expecting Franklin to reach the intensity of a Category 2 hurricane. Such a tropical cyclone has maximum sustained winds of 96-110 mph on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The next level is a major hurricane, or Category 3, with sustained winds of 111-129 mph.

Franklin to track west of Bermuda, but how far?

"Interests in Bermuda should not let their guard down even though the center of the eye of Franklin is currently projected to be west of the islands," Douty said.

Some eastward or westward shift in the track, even by as little as 100 miles, may make the difference between hurricane conditions on Bermuda and just a gusty breeze and a few rain squalls.

From Monday to Tuesday will be the most likely period for gusty winds, locally heavy rain and rough seas around Bermuda. How significant impacts from Franklin become in Bermuda will depend upon the exact track and intensity of Franklin as it cruises west of the islands.

"Any eastward jog that Franklin takes over the weekend could bring heavy rain and strong wind to Bermuda," AccuWeather Meteorologist La Troy Thornton said. "It is not yet out of the question that the center of Franklin passes within a hundred miles of the islands."

"Franklin's exact path will depend on the position and strength of non-tropical weather systems such as high pressure over the central Atlantic and the approach of a cool front from North America," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok explained.

Could Franklin affect the US or Canada?

At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists believe that Franklin and its potentially damaging winds will stay to the east of much of the United States during the last days of August.

Impacts on the U.S. due to Franklin are likely to be limited to building seas offshore, turbulent surf and an uptick in the number and strength of rip currents, especially from the Carolinas to Massachusetts, from Saturday to Wednesday, Douty said.

AccuWeather meteorologists currently believe that westerly steering winds will protect the Northeast states from any close encounter with Franklin.

However, because Cape Cod, Massachusetts, extends eastward into the Atlantic, wave action and perhaps winds from Franklin could be more of a problem than in New Jersey or South Carolina, should more of a westward jog occur.

For direct impacts on North America, the island of Newfoundland, Canada, is the most likely spot to experience wind and rain from Franklin. The center of the storm is most likely to pass close to the southeastern coast of Newfoundland on Thursday as a tropical storm.

For the aforementioned reasons, forecasters recommend that people from Bermuda to eastern New England and Atlantic Canada, as well as offshore cruise, shipping and deep-sea interests, monitor the track and strength of Franklin.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic

AccuWeather meteorologists are continuing to monitor disturbances, called tropical waves, that have already moved off the coast of Africa or will do so in the coming days.

Given the warm waters in the Atlantic this season, there is the potential for multiple tropical systems to be spinning throughout the basin simultaneously, and there is even the potential for formerly-named systems to come back to life, Pastelok said. One such storm that could do just that is Emily.

Emily was a short-lived tropical storm from Sunday to Monday over the middle of the Atlantic and had since diminished to a tropical rainstorm. There is some indication that Emily could regenerate, possibly taking on a new name, depending on the discretion of the National Hurricane Center.

"Based on the abnormally warm water, there is the potential for more deceased tropical systems to regenerate during the months of September and October," Pastelok said.

Monitoring tropical development potential for Gulf of Mexico and possible strike on Florida

Prior to the end of the month, the proximity of a cool front along the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts could be a source of trouble for tropical development -- perhaps more than once.

"There is room for a disturbance to move northward from the western Caribbean and into the eastern Gulf during the end of August," Pastelok warned.

AccuWeather forecasters have raised the threat of tropical development in the eastern Gulf of Mexico to a high risk, or likely event, from Monday to Tuesday. Should a system form in this zone, it may ramp up quickly and zip into Florida at a swift pace.

Extremely warm water (well into the 80s to near 90 F) and low wind shear could foster the organization and strengthening of such a system. A water temperature of 80 degrees is the approximate minimum threshold for tropical development.

As such, areas from the eastern Gulf to the southern Atlantic coast, including Florida, might have to deal with some tropical disturbance or perhaps a more robust tropical system close to the extended Labor Day weekend.

As an added concern, a front will dip down into the region by early September. Disturbances along this front could also evolve into a tropical system or two.

On a positive note, AccuWeather's long-range and tropical teams believe that tropical activity should avoid the western Gulf of Mexico zone through the Labor Day holiday.

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