Tropical Depression 10 forms, to make landfall in Florida this week
A new system has taken shape near the Gulf of Mexico, and AccuWeather meteorologists warn that it could strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane before approaching Florida during the new week.
A tropical system has taken shape and is tracking into the Gulf of Mexico, and AccuWeather meteorologists warn it could evolve into a hurricane as it continues on a path toward Florida.
Tropical Depression Ten formed on Saturday afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 30 miles per hour. By early Sunday morning, winds had increased to 35 mph. Once winds reach or exceed 39 mph, it will become a named tropical storm. The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is Idalia.
The newly formed system is expected to continue strengthening through Sunday and into the start of the new week before it eventually makes landfall in the United States. Strengthening to a tropical storm is likely prior to the end of the weekend.
A satellite image of Tropical Depression Ten on Sunday morning. (AccuWeather/RealVue™ Enhanced)
AccuWeather meteorologists were monitoring a broad area of low pressure near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula since late last week, the feature that eventually became better organized and strengthened into Tropical Depression Ten.
One factor that limited development on Friday was an abundance of wind shear, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said. Wind shear is a strong breeze from one direction or changing directions that can often have a negative impact on tropical systems.
As the wind shear lessened, it opened the door for the system to strengthen into an organized tropical system.
"Rapid development and strengthening could take place in the eastern Gulf of Mexico where the feature transitions from a tropical depression to a Category 1 hurricane in the span of 24 hours," Douty warned.
A tropical depression has a defined circulation with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. A tropical storm is much better organized and has maximum winds ranging from 39-73 mph. A Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale has sustained winds of 74-95 mph.
Water temperatures are quite high in the eastern Gulf and generally range from the middle 80s to near 90 degrees Fahrenheit. AccuWeather noted early on during the hurricane season that any tropical system that ventures into these waters has a significant chance of strengthening rapidly.
Interests in the area from southeastern Mexico and western Cuba to the U.S. north-central and eastern Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of the strength and track of this tropical system.
Into Monday, clusters of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will slowly consolidate and could pose dangers from flash flooding and damaging winds from parts of southeastern Mexico to western Cuba. Similarly heavy squalls that develop over the nearby waters may be a risk to small craft.
To raise public awareness of this near-coast tropical threat, AccuWeather meteorologists began to refer to the system as a tropical rainstorm and initiated a track map as of Friday afternoon, 24 hours before the tropical depression formed.
At this early stage, the tropical depression could track anywhere from Naples, Florida, to Mobile, Alabama.
Conditions are likely to deteriorate over the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Keys to much of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and northward to part of the coastline of the Florida Panhandle from Monday to Tuesday night. How significant winds, wave action and storm surge get as well as where the heaviest rains evolve will depend on the track and intensity of the tropical system.
A weaker system will tend to be more sprawled out and may affect a broad area with localized flash flooding in Florida. A quickly strengthening system is likely to be more compact with an area of damaging winds, storm surge and flooding rain in part of the Florida Peninsula and part of the Florida mainland from Tuesday to Wednesday.
At this time, people along the Gulf Coast of Florida to the Alabama Panhandle should review their preparation with the chance of a landfalling tropical system from Tuesday night to early Wednesday. However, rain, thunderstorms, gusty winds and building seas will likely precede the arrival of the tropical system by 12 hours or more.
Enough rain may fall, perhaps several inches or more, to lead to areas of inland flooding in low-lying areas beginning as early as Tuesday in central and northern Florida, according to AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker.
"Tropical-storm-force winds with gusts ranging from 40-60 mph are likely in much of northern and central Florida with stronger gusts of 60-80 mph along part of the central and northern Florida Gulf coast," Walker said. "These conditions could shift westward or southward and could be worse, depending on the intensity and track of the tropical system from Tuesday to Wednesday."
Travel conditions are likely to deteriorate with the potential for significant airline delays with flights coming into and departing central and northern Florida from Tuesday to Wednesday.
Steering breezes are likely to carry the system northeastward perhaps along the southern Atlantic coast from Wednesday night to Thursday.
Should the system emerge over warm Gulf Stream Atlantic waters along the southeastern coast of the U.S. by Thursday, re-organization and further strengthening is possible. However, should the system remain over land, a gradual loss of wind intensity would occur and drenching rain may initiate flooding over the southeastern U.S. mainland.
Simultaneously, a weather front will stall over the mainland of the Southeast from Monday to Wednesday. Localized flooding downpours and gusty thunderstorms are likely to occur well away from the track of the tropical system from the panhandles of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida to Georgia and the Carolinas. Airline delays and slow travel on the highways in this zone are likely.
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