Tropical rain threat from Nicole to target NYC
Nicole’s trek across the U.S. is far from over, and tropical downpours, wind and even the threat for severe weather will target the Big Apple.
After making landfall as a deadly Category 1 hurricane in Florida early Thursday morning, Nicole is moving up the East Coast and will spread heavy rain across the Interstate 95 corridor, including the New York City area and surrounding suburbs.
When will the worst of the rain arrive?
• Rain from Nicole is forecast to arrive in New York City between 11 a.m. EST and 1 p.m. EST Friday. According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek, it will start as a drizzle or light rain that could continue through the Friday evening commute.
• The worst of the rain is expected during the second half of Friday night into early Saturday morning. Tropical downpours could cause flash flooding, but it is not expected to be as severe as Ida was in New York City on Sept. 1, 2021
Look Back: Why was Ida so devastating in New York City?
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More than just rain
• Tropical storm-force winds could be experienced in New York City, even if Nicole transitions from a tropical storm to a tropical rainstorm. "I think Friday night it becomes windy with the best chance of strong to damaging wind gust overnight between 40 and 45 mph," Dombek said. He added that there is a chance winds could reach 50 miles per hour in some areas.
Severe weather risk? "Damaging wind gusts are certainly possible, and I think there is a very small chance, not zero, very small chance that somebody in the NYC area sees a brief tornado," Dombek said.
• If a twister does spin up, it will be short-lived and will likely be rated an EF0 or EF1, but the damage is a possibility.
Rainfall should end on Saturday between 7 a.m. EST and 9 a.m. EST. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain is forecast to fall in the Big Apple, which would be the biggest rainfall event since Oct. 4 when 1.85 inches fell.
• Dramatically cooler air is forecast to filter into New York City in the wake of Nicole with temperatures tumbling from near 70 degrees Fahrenheit on Saturday, to around 50 on Sunday and then into the 40s early in the week.
Dombek said that it is rare for a tropical system like Nicole to impact the mid-Atlantic this late in the year. Additionally, the wind will come from the southeast when most November storms feature wind blowing from the east or northeast. The wind direction could cause minor coastal flooding in southeast-facing shores that might not experience flooding from an early season nor'easter.
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