Tropical concerns to focus close to US through Labor Day weekend
Tropical trouble could brew close to the United States before the next surge in activity near the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
For the second year in a row, we may have no named tropical systems in the Atlantic on Labor Day, which is a rare occurrence during the peak of hurricane season.
Attention in the tropics is shifting to waters close to North America through the Labor Day weekend as Fernand fades and little else stirs across the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
Tropical Storm Fernand is expected to remain well offshore, but high surf and dangerous rip currents may affect coastal areas of Newfoundland this week.
“Dry and dusty air over the main development region of the central and southeastern Atlantic has caused a lull in tropical activity this week," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
There's also a long trail of cool water lingering over part of the southwestern Atlantic in the wake of Hurricane Erin, which can temporarily suppress future tropical activity until the water warms to above 80 degrees.
Conditions close to the United States are more favorable for tropical depression formation due to the Gulf Stream current and the warm Gulf waters.
“We expect an unusually strong dip in the jet stream to push into the Southeast states over the holiday weekend, which could help spin up homegrown tropical development," DaSilva warned.
AccuWeather forecasters believe the risk for tropical development is low, but at the very least, the pattern will bring showers, thunderstorms and torrential downpours that can set off flash urban flooding.
Even if a non-tropical storm evolves in the region, the circulation around that storm and high pressure to the north will kick up stiff northeast breezes along the Atlantic Coast from Florida to Virginia. The stiff breezes will tend to increase wave action, make for strong rip currents and can lead to above-normal tides and beach erosion. The condition could reverse some cleanup efforts in the wake of Erin.
"It is somewhat rare to see the risk of homegrown tropical development in late August," DaSilva said. "We typically see homegrown tropical development near the U.S. coast during early weeks and the final weeks of the hurricane season.”
Should the Atlantic be void of a tropical system over the Labor Day weekend, it would be uncommon, but not unheard of. Just last year, there were no organized tropical rainstorms, tropical depressions, tropical storms or hurricanes over the basin during the holiday.
This lull will be temporary, as activity in the tropics could ramp up fast by mid-September.
"Atmospheric conditions conducive to tropical development are forecast to return by the end of the first week of September," DaSilva cautioned.
The peak of the hurricane season looms, and the entire second half of the season is still ahead.
"Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are extremely warm," DaSilva said. "This is of great concern, as the 'untapped' waters of the Gulf could allow any budding tropical entity to rapidly intensify."
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