Tropical activity to ramp up before peak of Atlantic hurricane season
September is peak hurricane season across the Atlantic, and there is a chance that Tropical Storm Gabrielle forms ahead of the upcoming weekend.
Meteorologist Leslie Hudson discusses the history of Labor Day hurricanes.
It’s officially September, and with the start of meteorological autumn comes the most active month of the Atlantic hurricane season.
The Atlantic basin may get off to a slow start this month, but activity is expected to ramp up as the season approaches its climatological peak. Meanwhile, tropical development is already increasing in the East Pacific, where impacts to land are likely.
Monitoring the eastern Atlantic this week
As the peak of hurricane season nears, the hurricane experts at AccuWeather remain vigilant, monitoring the Atlantic Basin for tropical development. "We continue to forecast a medium risk for tropical development off the west coast of Africa during the middle to latter portions of this week," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
The most likely days of strengthening would be between Thursday and Saturday.
"Due to large amounts of dry air currently in the region, any tropical development and strengthening would likely be gradual. But, it's possible that anything that forms could ramp up to a hurricane by the end of the weekend," DaSilva said.
The next tropical storm or hurricane will be named Gabrielle.
Tropical development elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean is likely to remain minimal due to a strong area of high pressure and the aformentioned persistent dry, dusty air in the middle of the ocean.
When is the Atlantic expected to get more active?
"While there will be a relative lull in tropical activity during the first few days of September, atmospheric conditions will become a lot more conducive for development later this week and into next week," said DaSilva.
As a result, an uptick in tropical activity is expected in less than a week, which is right on time for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season on Sept. 10.
More tropical waves are expected to come off the western coast of Africa during this time and, with less dust and dry air in the way, it's likely more of these waves will strengthen.
Outside of the open waters of the Atlantic, the Gulf will also bear watching. With very warm waters, the Gulf could fuel the rapid strengthening of any tropical system that develops or moves into the region.
Hurricane Kiko to strengthen in East Pacific before eyeing Hawaii
Kiko, which intensified into a hurricane early Tuesday morning, is churning in the East Pacific more than 1,000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The storm is forecast to gradually strengthen in the coming days and continue to move away from North America.
Kiko is strengthening in the East Pacific Ocean, well away from land, on Monday, September 1. (Photo/CIMSS)
Even though Kiko is forecast to move away from the lower 48 states, it could hold together long enough to impact Hawaii.
"The Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor Kiko's track and progress, because it's not out of the question that the storm could pass near the Islands early next week," DaSilva said.
AccuWeather hurricane experts believe the Big Island of Hawaii could at least have increased wave activity early next week.
If Kiko passes close enough to the islands, tropical downpours and gusty winds could also be a concern next week, especially for the Big Island.
Tropical Depression 12-E forms near Mexico, could drench Southwest
While Hurricane Kiko continues to strengthens over the open waters of the East Pacific Ocean early this week, Tropical Depression 12-E, which formed late Monday night, will move near western shores of Mexico.
"We are watching Tropical Depression 12-E which will bring impacts to western Mexico this week and possibly the southwestern U.S. this weekend," DaSilva warned.
Early this week, beach-goers can expect rougher surf and strong rip currents along the western coast of Mexico and the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. However, as the depression moves northward this week, heavy rain and gusty winds are will spread from the west-central Mexican Coast, through Baja California into northwestern Mexico.
The tropical moisture is forecast to be drawn into parts of the southwestern U.S. by this weekend.
An area farther south and farther away from land is being monitored in the East Pacific later this week and next weekend. Any developing storm is unlikely to impact land.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Report a Typo
