Rapidly intensifying Erick to peak as major hurricane before landfall
Erick has reached Category 2 hurricane intensity in a matter of hours. Additional rapid strengthening is feared prior to approaching the southwestern coast of Mexico on Thursday.
Bernie Rayno tracks the winds and warm water in the tropics that indicate hurricane development.
The eastern Pacific continues its tropical tear with the fifth tropical storm and second hurricane of the season already in the books, and more are on the way. The latest tropical cyclone "Erick" is on its way to becoming a major hurricane and could peak at Category 4 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
On the heels of Dalila, Tropical Storm Erick formed off the coast of Mexico early Tuesday morning and, in only about 24 hours, became the second hurricane of the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season as anticipated. This is the earliest fifth-named storm since July 9, 1956. The average date for the fifth-named storm is July 23.
In several hours, Erick ramped up to another level, reaching Category 2 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. As of noon, local time, Erick's maximum sustained winds were 100 mph. Just 24 hours earlier, Erick had sustained winds of 50 mph. The criteria for rapid intensification are an increase in winds of at least 35 mph or more in 24 hours or less.
AccuWeather meteorologists believe Hurricane Erick will continue to strengthen and will do so at a rapid pace into early Thursday. It has already become the strongest tropical cyclone in the Northern and Western Hemispheres so far this year.
This image shows strengthening Hurricane Erick with an eye clearly visible just southwest of the coast of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon, June 18, 2025. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
With five tropical storms and now two hurricanes already for the eastern Pacific basin, this season is well ahead of the historical average pace. Typically, the fourth tropical storm does not form until mid-July, and the average date for the first hurricane is not until June 26. Barbara briefly strengthened to a hurricane back on Sunday, June 8.
The second hurricane and first major (Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) hurricane tends to form around mid-July. A major hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. There is a chance that Eric briefly reaches Category 4 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale as it approaches the coast.
"We expect Erick to drift northwestward and close in on the southwestern coast of Mexico," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "Erick will rapidly strengthen until it reaches the coast."
"Erick may track very close to Acapulco with the full impacts you would expect from a hurricane, ranging from powerful wind gusts and power outages to torrential rain and flash flooding, as well as storm surge flooding," DaSilva added. The worst of the hurricane's effects are anticipated farther to the southwest of Acapulco along the Mexican coast.
Factoring in the possibilities of intensity, track, topography and population, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes with the current hurricane is a 3, but that could climb based on how quickly and how much Erick strengthens and exactly where it approaches the Mexico coast.
Barbara peaked last week as an entry-level Category 1 hurricane while well offshore with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. This new storm has eclipsed that intensity as it approaches the coast and populated areas.
How much rain and wind occur to the north and east of the center will depend on the amount of strengthening prior to landfall into Thursday morning. Both heavy rain and gusty winds were blasting Mexico well ahead of the center of the storm on Wednesday.
Enough rain will fall in parts of southern and southwestern Mexico along the coast and over the interior mountains to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. From 8-16 inches of rain is forecast to fall over a broad area with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 20 inches.
Strong winds will buffet the coast, generating large swells, big waves, overwash on the beaches and shoreline and dangerous rip currents in the surf zone.
A storm surge of 6-10 feet is forecast along a portion of the southern Mexico coast near and just east of where the center makes landfall.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect 14-18 tropical storms for the eastern Pacific season with seven to 10 forecast to become hurricanes. Of these, from three to six will bring direct impacts to Mexico and Central America.
In the wake of the fifth tropical storm this week, yet another tropical rainstorm may unfold west of Central America prior to the end of the month (June 24-27).
Tropical Atlantic continues to sleep
Meanwhile, the tropical Atlantic basin continues to struggle with vast areas of dry air, dust and disruptive winds—all of which are not uncommon tropical development deterrents early in the season.
Bernie Rayno discusses areas with decreasing wind shear and rainstorms that could very likely turn into a tropical storm next week.
"While the chances have become very small, we continue to watch the area close in to land in the southwestern Gulf and the western Caribbean for tropical development late in June," DaSilva said.
There have been some showers and thunderstorms in this area in recent days, but no organization has occurred. "Any tropical rainstorm or depression that were to form in the area would likely not spend much time over warm water and, hence, its lifespan would be brief," DaSilva said.
Another area to watch will be just off the coast of the Carolinas, Georgia and northeastern Florida prior to the end of the month. As a complex of thunderstorms drops across the Northeast states and then moves southward offshore, it could slowly coalesce into a tropical rainstorm while over the Gulf Stream.
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