Meteorologists say it's 'possible' tropical system develops in Bay of Bengal late this week
By
Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist &
Robert Richards, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Apr 30, 2020 3:29 PM EST
The potential for tropical development in the Indian Ocean through the weekend is gradually becoming less likely, but AccuWeather meteorologists warn residents not to let their guard down just yet.
This threat of development marks the beginning of an increase in tropical activity that usually precedes the arrival of India's southwest monsoon.
AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking a broad area of low pressure over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands that will slowly drift to the west across the Bay of Bengal through the weekend. During that time, the low will be over warm water and in an area of low wind shear, conditions that are conducive for tropical development.
"Although the threat of significant development looks lower, there remains some question on the eventual strength and track of this system. It is still possible that it becomes a depression by the weekend or early next week," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
Regardless of the storm's strength, it is forecast to bring tropical downpours to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands through early this week, which will increase the risk of flash flooding and mudslides.
After moving away from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, it is possible that the low will remain weak and continue to the west into southern India, not forming into a tropical depression. This scenario would bring heavy downpours across Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and potentially Kerala early next week.
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Another possibility is the low will curve to the north and parallel the east coast of India.
Douty explains, "This would give the system more time over water and allow for further strengthening, possibly into a cyclonic storm."
This track would bring a greater threat to coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. A track far enough north could also threaten Bangladesh.
It is not uncommon for tropical systems to develop in the Bay of Bengal or Indian Sea during the beginning of May.
"The northern Indian Ocean tropical season officially is boundless, meaning tropical cyclones can form anytime of year. However, the northern Indian Ocean tropical season has two peaks. The first peak is from April to June, or pre-monsoon, and the second peak spans from September into December, or post-monsoon," said AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Hurricane
Meteorologists say it's 'possible' tropical system develops in Bay of Bengal late this week
By Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist & Robert Richards, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Apr 30, 2020 3:29 PM EST
The potential for tropical development in the Indian Ocean through the weekend is gradually becoming less likely, but AccuWeather meteorologists warn residents not to let their guard down just yet.
This threat of development marks the beginning of an increase in tropical activity that usually precedes the arrival of India's southwest monsoon.
AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking a broad area of low pressure over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands that will slowly drift to the west across the Bay of Bengal through the weekend. During that time, the low will be over warm water and in an area of low wind shear, conditions that are conducive for tropical development.
"Although the threat of significant development looks lower, there remains some question on the eventual strength and track of this system. It is still possible that it becomes a depression by the weekend or early next week," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
Regardless of the storm's strength, it is forecast to bring tropical downpours to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands through early this week, which will increase the risk of flash flooding and mudslides.
After moving away from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, it is possible that the low will remain weak and continue to the west into southern India, not forming into a tropical depression. This scenario would bring heavy downpours across Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and potentially Kerala early next week.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Another possibility is the low will curve to the north and parallel the east coast of India.
Douty explains, "This would give the system more time over water and allow for further strengthening, possibly into a cyclonic storm."
This track would bring a greater threat to coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. A track far enough north could also threaten Bangladesh.
Related:
It is not uncommon for tropical systems to develop in the Bay of Bengal or Indian Sea during the beginning of May.
"The northern Indian Ocean tropical season officially is boundless, meaning tropical cyclones can form anytime of year. However, the northern Indian Ocean tropical season has two peaks. The first peak is from April to June, or pre-monsoon, and the second peak spans from September into December, or post-monsoon," said AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo