How soon might Nadine, Oscar follow Milton in tropical Atlantic?
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is far from over and there are new areas that AccuWeather meteorologsts are monitoring for tropical development for the middle and latter parts of October.
Hurricane Milton drenched the state of Florida with torrential rainfall and flooding. Multiple rivers in the state swelled up to major flood stages, which could linger due to the state’s flat terrain.
Hurricane season is far from over, and AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring several areas for tropical development. One threat is close to the same area where Helene developed.
As winds and seas continue to subside along the southern Atlantic coast, runoff from Milton's rain will lead to river flooding in parts of Florida into next week. Showers will be limited, and the nearby tropics will be quiet in terms of threats for most of next week.
A familiar spot could spawn tropical development from late next week to next weekend; it's the general part of the world that gave birth to Milton but more specifically Helene.
"We expect another gyre to get going over Central America later next week," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, "From this large, slowly spinning area of low pressure, a more distinct area of showers and thunderstorms may form, and from that, a tropical depression or tropical storm may evolve."
This time, the area under close scrutiny is in the western Caribbean, which helped Helene take root.
"Not only are waters very warm in this area--well into the 80s F, waters are warm down to the depths and not only are they warm down deep, the ocean heat content in the western Caribbean is at record high levels for any time of the year," DaSilva said.
Deep, warm water played key roles in the development and rapid strengthening of Helene (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale Category 4) and Milton (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale Category 5). When there is deep warm water, the wave action does not mix cool water to the surface. The sea surface temperature threshold for tropical development is 78-80 F.
Winds maxed out at 140 mph with Helene and 180 mph with Milton, which was one of the strongest hurricanes on record for the Atlantic. Early in the hurricane season, Hurricane Beryl (165-mph Category 5) ramped up quickly over the eastern Caribbean.
"Wind shear, or disruptive breezes, will be low in this part of the Western Hemisphere and may help to foster development along with the circulation around an area of high pressure that is forecast to build over the eastern United States later next week," DaSilva said.
At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists believe there is a medium risk of tropical development in the western Caribbean from Oct. 17-19.
While it is too early to say exactly where a tropical storm might travel after it forms, based on historical averages in this part of the Atlantic during the second half of October, there are two main options.
"One possibility would take the system westward into Central America and southern Mexico, and the other is, unfortunately, toward Florida," DaSilva said, "It is typically very difficult for a tropical system to continue toward the northwest and into Texas this late in the season due to prevailing westerly breezes in that area."
AccuWeather's team of expert meteorologists will continue to monitor this area and other features moving westward from the coast of Africa in the coming days.
A feature a few hundred miles off the African coast has the potential to become a tropical depression or storm well ahead of the western Caribbean feature. This mid-ocean storm could then track close to the islands in the northeastern Caribbean late next week, so it is possible there could be two named storms in action at the same time.
The next two names on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 season are Nadine and Oscar.
Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until Nov. 30.
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