Harold to transition to tropical rainstorm, following first US landfall of 2023
After ramping up quickly to a tropical storm and making the first landfall in the United States for 2023, Harold will unload drenching rain and trigger localized flash flooding along the Mexico border into midweek.
Storm chaser Mike Scantlin reports from the eyewall of Tropical Storm Harold in Kennedy County, Texas, on Aug. 22.
Harold made landfall in South Texas on Tuesday, less than 12 hours after becoming a tropical storm. AccuWeather forecasters say Harold will continue to impact southern and western Texas and northern Mexico with drenching rain and localized flash flooding through Wednesday as the system slowly unwinds while pushing well inland.
A frenzy of tropical development in the Atlantic Basin early this week included Tropical Depression 9 being upgraded to Tropical Storm Harold shortly after 1 a.m. CDT on Tuesday, following a trek across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
At 9:55 a.m. CDT on Tuesday, Harold made landfall on Padre Island just south of Baffin Bay in southern Texas, about 50 miles south of Corpus Christi.
This image of the Gulf of Mexico was taken on Tuesday morning, Aug. 22, 2023 showing Tropical Storm Harold as it neared the southern Texas coast. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ satellite)
AccuWeather meteorologists initiated the risk of development last week for Harold well ahead of other sources, including the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The potential for tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico was raised earlier in August by AccuWeather’s long-range team.
“The warm waters in the Gulf, as well as a lack of disruptive wind shear, has allowed Harold to strengthen so quickly,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis. Water temperatures were well into the 80s F across the central and western Gulf of Mexico.
Harold lost wind intensity as it moved inland, becoming a tropical depression on Tuesday afternoon. Into Wednesday, the system will transition to a tropical rainstorm as it pushes northwestward along the Rio Grande River.
Forecasters have rated Harold as less than 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for hurricanes in the United States and Mexico due to the risk of flooding rainfall, coastal wind impacts, rough seas and strong rip currents.
AccuWeather accurately predicted well over a week ago that tropical rainfall could impact South Texas early this week. Many locations in South Texas have received 1-4 inches of rain from Harold, including Corpus Christi, which picked up 4.74 inches of rain as of 3 a.m. local time Wednesday.
The bulk of the rain has ended along the South Texas coast as of Tuesday evening. However, downpours capable of producing flash flooding persisted northwest of Laredo, Texas.
The heaviest rain from Harold is likely to fall in the mountains in northern Mexico and perhaps in the Big Bend area of Texas along the Rio Grande River. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches has been assigned to the storm.
Much of the rain from Harold, in the long run, is expected to be helpful in combating the drought across much of the region. Most of South Texas is in a moderate or severe drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Most of Harold’s rain, however, will miss the worst drought-stricken areas of southeastern and central Texas, near Houston and Austin.
“The dry ground of southern Texas will have difficulty absorbing the water from the heavy, tropical downpours. Instead, the water is likely to pool or run off the ground, leading to flash flooding,” Travis said.
As Harold moves inland through Wednesday, coastal winds, tides and seas will diminish. However, Harold is forecast to interact with some tumultuous terrain in northern Mexico. As such, Harold is expected to continue to lose wind intensity and become an untrackable feature past the middle of the week.
Despite this, some of the tropical moisture from Harold may linger a little longer. Much of the downpours will likely turn to the northwest, then take a northern path into western Texas, New Mexico and perhaps eastern Arizona from midweek to late in the week, according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski. The rain will move along the southern and western flank of a massive dome of heat over the middle of the nation. The scope of the rain may shrink in size after a couple of days.
In El Paso, Texas, where downpours associated with Hilary passed hundreds of miles to the west, downpours and thunderstorms associated with Harold reached the area late Tuesday night. Enough rain may fall in short order to lead to localized flash flooding. At the very least, cloud cover and shower activity should be extensive enough to keep temperatures from climbing past the 80s F for the first time since the start of June. El Paso might have its coolest daytime conditions since mid-May or perhaps April should temperatures stop in the lower 80s.
Before becoming a depression, Harold, as a tropical rainstorm, brought drenching downpours and locally gusty thunderstorms to the Bahamas late last week and the Florida Peninsula this weekend. A general 2-3 inches of rain fell on the Florida Keys. Drought-stricken areas along the west coast of the Florida Peninsula picked up 0.25 to 1 inch of rain.
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