Gulf bears watching for tropical activity with flash flood risk from Texas to Florida
As an eastern Pacific tropical rainstorm fades, there's a chance a new storm may brew on the Atlantic side--over the Gulf. Areas of heavy rain are forecast to unfold from Texas to Florida regardless of storm formation.
The best emergency preparedness kit is one you put together before there’s a storm on the way, so here’s how you can plan ahead.
While the risk of tropical development remains low, the highest likelihood of development over the next week or so will be in the Gulf. Even without a defined storm, tropical downpours could increase the risk of flash flooding across the Gulf Coast states from Texas to Florida in the coming days.
Cristina, which originated in the eastern Pacific earlier this week, will continue to enhance downpours in southern Mexico as a tropical rainstorm into Friday night.
This image of the Gulf, Caribbean and Central America was captured on Friday afternoon, June 12, 2026. A tropical wave has become the dominant producer of showers and thunderstorms and is located over the southwestern Gulf. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
"Some of the energy from Cristina moving up from the south and from an approaching large tropical wave of low pressure from the east may combine forces in the southwestern Gulf, which could spur new tropical development," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
"The window for this particular development is small and generally limited to the period into Sunday," DaSilva continued.
The first name on the list of Atlantic tropical storms for 2026 is Arthur.
This area of interest will then drift into northeastern Mexico, but a plume of moisture is likely to stream in north of the feature. That moisture will first be wrung out over coastal and central Texas and Louisiana later this weekend and into early next week.
So much rain may fall that localized flash flooding occurs. A general 2-4 inches of rain is forecast with pockets of higher amounts.
The Texas Hill Country is especially vulnerable to heavy rain events, as the hardpan soil and steep terrain can amplify the runoff. The region has been impacted by catastrophic floods in the past, including the deadly flood along the Guadalupe River on Independence Day 2025.
The heaviest rain with this setup may occur just east of the Hill Country, but it is dependent on the formation of a new area of low pressure near the Texas coast.
"There is also some indication that this feature could wander back out over the Gulf or a second one may try to form over the Gulf along a sagging front," DaSilva explained. "The front alone could cause locally heavy rain along the central Gulf Coast region next week."
AccuWeather meteorologists are homing in on a zone from Louisiana, central and southern Mississippi to central Alabama, where the heaviest rain is likely to fall in the week ahead. In this area, from 4-8 inches of rain may be common. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall amount is 12 inches from Sunday to Wednesday.
Any organized area of low pressure along or near the front could enhance the rainfall to excessive levels.
Waters are sufficiently warm throughout the Gulf--generally above 80 F. There is some disruptive wind shear over the Gulf, but that is not as high as it has been in recent weeks.
"That rainstorm would have to detach from the front to be fully tropical, should it develop in the first place," DaSilva said. "Despite the likelihood of localized flash flooding, the upcoming pattern with the stalled front alone should bring some beneficial rain to the Gulf Coast states."
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