Hurricanes crowd the Pacific: What Hawaii and California can expect
The Pacific is teeming with tropical activity and there could be a close call with Lowell on Hawaii, while tropical moisture is forecast to bring downpours to the southwestern United States, including California.
Although California is not at risk of any tropical activity brewing from the Pacific, Marie could bring moisture and heavy rain to the state as well as rough surf and rip currents to its beaches.
An already strong El Niño is fueling a busy tropical season for the eastern and central Pacific. A new hurricane threat is emerging for Hawaii, while rounds of tropical moisture are forecast to take aim at the southwestern United States, including California.
So far this year, there have been 15 tropical depressions and storms in the eastern and central Pacific, including five hurricanes. AccuWeather meteorologists are expecting up to 22 named storms with nine to 13 hurricanes for the eastern portion of the basin alone.
Three hurricanes, one of which was a major hurricane, were spinning as of Thursday afternoon.
Lowell is now a Category 3 hurricane, while Karina is now a Category 2 hurricane and Marie is now also a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Hawaii on alert: Category 3 Hurricane Lowell forecast to make a right turn
Steering winds will guide large Hurricane Lowell on a west to northwest course hundreds of miles to the south of the Hawaiian Islands through the end of this week.
Beginning this weekend, at a point southwest of the island chain, the hurricane will encounter markedly different steering winds, triggering a sudden northward turn.
"Exactly when that turn begins and how much of a curve to the northeast will determine the extent of impacts on Hawaii from late this weekend to the middle of next week," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Lowell, a large storm, is likely to remain a powerful hurricane into next week, with some fluctuations in strength.
"We expect Lowell to track close enough to Hawaii to have some impacts," DaSilva said. "The most far-reaching will be rough surf, strong rip currents and sneaker waves, especially for the south-facing beaches throughout the islands."
"We believe Lowell will track close enough with the hurricane's large size, to bring more significant impacts to the western portion of the islands in the form of heavy rain, strong winds and perhaps power outages," DaSilva added.
A concern is that, perhaps similar to Iniki in early September 1992, the trees in the region are suited to handle east trade winds rather than strong winds from the south.
Children play in the rubble left by the fury of Hurricane Iniki, Sept. 15, 1992, at Brennecke's Beach near Poipu Beach, Hawaii, on the island of Kauai. (AP Photo/Reed Saxon)
While Iniki made an extremely rare landfall on Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane, even a glancing blow from Lowell could still cause significant problems due to rain and wind on the western islands in the chain.
Risk for an atmospheric river to develop over central, eastern islands
"We have another concern that a large atmospheric river may develop well to the east of Lowell's eye starting this weekend," DaSilva said. "This could bring areas of heavy rain and flooding to islands such as O'ahu, Maui and the Big Island well ahead of Lowell and as the hurricane tracks near Kauai."
There is the potential for waterspouts and brief tornadoes in some of the rain bands that develop.
Tropical moisture to fuel downpours in southwest U.S., California
The weather situation in waters off the West Coast of the U.S. is more complex than that affecting the tropics near Hawaii.
One factor is an unusually strong jet stream storm near the coast of Washington at midweek that will pivot slowly inland over the Western states into the Labor Day weekend.
A series of storms along the jet stream will direct cool air and moisture into the Northeast. These storms will tug on tropical moisture lurking to the south associated with Marie.
"The most plausible scenario for Marie is for some moisture to be drawn up into Southern California and the deserts this weekend as the core of the tropical cyclone stays at sea," AccuWeather Meteorologist Nicholas Arman said. "This scenario would bring some drenching downpours into the region."
There has been some discussion on social media and in other news outlets about Marie taking a straight route into California.
"Waters offshore of Southern California and northwest Mexico are warmer than average and not surprising given the state of El Niño in the tropical Pacific," Arman said. "While the warm water could sustain a tropical storm traveling well to the north and possibly through landfall, these events are extremely rare."
Even storms like Hurricane Hilary in 2023, which brought heavy rain to Southern California, did not make landfall in the U.S. There is only one recorded instance of a tropical storm making landfall in California: in 1939.
Another opportunity for at least a close call may arise before mid-September.
The position of the jet stream could be a key player in the track of a new tropical storm, or at least could provide a new round of tropical moisture to surge over the region during the second weekend of September. The next name on the list of eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes for 2026 is Norbert.
While much cooler air will invade Washington, Oregon and Northern California in the coming days, periodic surges of humid tropical air will be noticeable over Southern California and the Southwest, including during Labor Day weekend.
In terms of rainfall, while any rain in the region, including over the Colorado River basin, is welcome in drought conditions, it will bring flash-flood risks and could spoil outdoor plans. Hikers and campers need to stay alert.
With all of the tropical activity over the Pacific with hurricanes and tropical storms creating large swells, powerful breakers and sneaker waves are likely along the California coast through Labor Day weekend and beyond.
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