Former Rafael to cause trouble ahead of new tropical activity in Caribbean
Some tropical moisture from former Rafael will seep into the southern United States, while eyes turn toward the Caribbean once again for new tropical development toward mid-November.
It’s almost mid-November, but forecasters are still expecting another named storm in the Caribbean.
Even though the circulation from former Rafael will continue to diminish, its moisture may be drawn northward into part of the Gulf Coast of the United States this week. AccuWeather meteorologists are homing in on yet more tropical development in the Caribbean toward the middle of the month, which eventually could become a concern for Florida.
This image, captured on Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024, shows an array of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Atlantic and eastern Caribbean (lower middle and right). (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ satellite)
Former Rafael wavering, wandering the Gulf of Mexico
Rafael lost much of its circulation over the central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night. As of Tuesday morning, it has been reduced to a shredded zone of downpours and thunderstorms near coastal Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
Residual swells over the Gulf will continue to cause locally rough surf and strong rip currents along the northern and western coastal regions.
From Saturday to early Sunday, some of Rafael's moisture was sheared off from the then-yet well-defined tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico. That moisture significantly enhanced the rain produced by a slow-moving front in parts of eastern Texas and Louisiana. The moisture merge resulted in 1-8 inches of rain and localized flash flooding.
What is left of Rafael's center is forecast to wander or loop around over the western and central Gulf over the next couple of days. Increasing wind shear (stiff disruptive breezes) will continue to shred what is left of Rafael's circulation and much of its moisture.
"We believe that some or the bulk of Rafael's remaining moisture will be drawn northward into the central Gulf Coast region around the middle of the week as yet another non-tropical feature--a cold front moves from west to east over the lower Mississippi Valley," AccuWeather Meteorologist Grady Gilman said.
"The new cool front will also be more progressive than the one that unloaded 8 inches of rain on Saturday and the storm that unloaded a foot of rain on South Carolina and Georgia last week. Although downpours can produce minor flooding, persistent downpours aren’t expected and widespread flooding is not anticipated," Grady added.
Watching for new development in Caribbean
AccuWeather meteorologists continue to monitor other goings on in the Tropics.
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While a feature near the Bahamas that has been watched since last week is out of time due to an approaching front and a surge in wind shear, the main part of the Caribbean remains a potential breeding ground for new tropical storms through the third week November at least.
Once again, just as with Rafael most recently, the western and central part of the Caribbean Sea will be conducive to tropical depression and storm formation, provided that moisture increases over the region, wind shear remains low, and the clustering of showers and thunderstorms continues—currently near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. That cluster will likely wander westward a bit in the next few days, when and where development is forecast to begin.
Thunderstorm activity has caused torrential downpours and flooding on some of the northern islands of the Caribbean in the past 24 hours.
AccuWeather meteorologists outlined this area as a risk zone well over a week before any official source and have raised the development potential. This development risk is now at a high level.
North of the Caribbean, there will be a zone of wind shear that will initially tend to prevent the northward movement of any budding feature in the Caribbean. However, the natural blocking mechanism could dissolve during the third week of the month and allow any tropical storm to move northward, in which case interests in South Florida and the Keys may need to stay vigilant.
Should a feature organize, interests from Central America to southeastern Mexico, Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola Puerto Rico and South Florida should monitor the Caribbean for budding tropical activity and related torrential downpours and gusty thunderstorms beginning later next week.
The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Sara.
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