Communication gaps during Hurricane Ida noted as Weather Service's pitfalls
Key takeaways from a post-storm assessment of Ida in 2021 shows that the National Weather Service must improve communication of flash-flooding risks to the public
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A post-storm assessment of the deadly and devastating Hurricane Ida, which slammed the United States in 2021, was released in late April 2023 by the National Weather Service (NWS), citing communication failures between forecasters in the weather service and emergency officials. The lack of communication led to confusion and delays in response, such as potentially life-saving evacuations, the report stated.
The most infamous storm of the 2021 season, Ida exploded from a tropical depression into a Category 4 hurricane within three days before it made landfall in Louisiana on Aug. 29, 2021. Parts of the Gulf Coast region were devastated. However, the storm’s wrath was felt as far away as the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Flooding became deadly in New York City and claimed more than 50 lives in the Northeast as the tropical rainstorm continued unloading torrential rain days after landfall.
As climate change continues to put more Americans in harm's way, examining how officials prepared, communicated and reacted to Ida's fury will provide communities with better tools to respond to natural disasters in the future.
A team of 26 governmental meteorologists, social scientists and hydrologists put together this post-storm assessment last month to evaluate the NWS's performance before and during Hurricane Ida. The key takeaways were that the agency must improve its communication of flash-flooding risks, so the public can easily understand what dangers they may face during a storm such as Ida.
Failure to highlight the significant flash-flooding threat
The Schuylkill River exceeds its bank in the Manayunk section of Philadelphia, Thursday, Sept. 2, 2021 in the aftermath of downpours and high winds from the remnants of Hurricane Ida that hit the area. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
The torrential rain Ida brought to the mid-Atlantic states resulted in deadly flash flooding in several states. At the time of the event, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said it was "the most significant flash-flooding disaster in New York City history."
According to the NWS report, 52 of the 87 fatalities were attributed to the fast-rising floods produced by the storm. Most of the fatalities from this storm occurred in the Northeast. New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Virginia and Maryland all recorded storm-related deaths from Ida. Prior to the storm impacting the Northeast, 32 fatalities were reported in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
Ahead of the storm's onset in the mid-Atlantic, flash flood watches were issued, but according to the report, several partners, including emergency officials, didn't expect the storm to bring rainfall rates as intense as it did.
"Flood watches do not adequately differentiate a high-end, life-threatening flash flood event from a more typical flash flood event," the report stated. "The overwhelming feedback from [emergency management] partners was that they were prepared for river and flash flooding but had not completely anticipated the severity of impacts."
The post-storm assessment indicated Ida brought rainfall rates of 3–5 inches per hour to the New York City metropolitan area.
United States Geological Survey workers measure the floodwaters along the Raritan River in Somerville, N.J. Thursday, Sept. 2, 2021. A stunned U.S. East Coast faced a rising death toll, surging rivers, tornado damage and continuing calls for rescue Thursday after the remnants of Hurricane Ida walloped the region with record-breaking rain. (AP Photo/Eduardo Munoz Alvarez)
These high rainfall rates warranted the NWS weather forecast office (WFO) in New York to issue its first-ever flash flood emergency, but the lack of understanding among partners of the seriousness of this type of warning was highlighted in the report.
Recommendations to improve communication of these types of warnings to partners include not using "boiler-plate template wording" and producing "a more detailed message" in high-end events.
How the extratropical threat was communicated
Ida made landfall in Port Fourchon, Louisiana, on Aug. 29, 2021, as a powerful Category 4 hurricane. As the storm moved inland, it lost wind intensity but remained potent as it carried torrential rain across the eastern United States. When it impacted the mid-Atlantic region over Labor Day weekend, it was considered an "extratropical" storm, which is a term National Weather Service meteorologists use to describe a post-tropical cyclone once it enters the mid-latitudes.
The majority of the deaths from Ida occurred after it made that transition from a hurricane to an extratropical storm. In fact, more than half of the 87 fatalities occurred during the second half of the storm, according to the NWS assessment.
The report found that inconsistencies in the messaging around the transition of Ida from a hurricane to an extratropical storm resulted in confusion among partners and the public.
Vehicles are under water during flooding in Philadelphia, Thursday, Sept. 2, 2021 in the aftermath of downpours and high winds from the remnants of Hurricane Ida that hit the area. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
The nomenclature used to describe the storm's forecast path ranged from "tropical depression" to "the remnants of Ida," the report stated. Other offices did not use "Ida" in their messaging at all; instead, they only referenced "flooding."
This inconsistency "confused" the Pennsylvania State Emergency Operations Center, according to the report. While the Pennsylvania State Emergency Operations Center employs a specific response plan for tropical systems, it does not use the same system for "tropical remnants."
"They interpreted the term 'remnant' to imply a lesser impact event compared to a 'tropical system,'" the report stated.
Similar to what is done prior to a large snowstorm, "initiating a travel ban and evacuating occupants before the rain had started, based on the forecast, would have saved lives," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter wrote in an op-ed piece for The Philadelphia Inquirer in October 2021.
However, in Philadelphia and its surrounding suburbs, a travel ban was never issued. Instead, warnings to evacuate and avoid areas with dangerous flooding were shared by officials after the fact, according to Porter. This resulted in more than 450 water rescues and five fatalities.
"Because this was a rainstorm, proper preparations were not made in advance, even though storms that produce copious amounts of storm surge and/or flooding rain have historically been responsible for more fatalities than have snowstorms," Porter noted.
In an effort to avoid confusion and to highlight the significant risk Ida still packed, AccuWeather meteorologists referred to it as a "tropical rainstorm."
Tropical rainstorms can vary greatly by strength, speed, moisture, and travel path, and as Ida tracked toward the northeastern U.S., it remained a robust storm system full of tropical moisture.
"The AccuWeather forecast included specific, actionable language that communicated the dangerous risk more clearly than any other source by saying 'significant flash flood risk, watch for and avoid rapidly rising water' and later 'widespread, significant and life-threatening flash flooding,'" Porter said in a post-storm writeup. "Forecasts from other sources, including The Weather Channel, made no mention of flooding."
Furthermore, AccuWeather meteorologists rated Ida a 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in hopes of better expressing the threat of dangerous flooding and destruction along the storm's projected path.
Introduced by AccuWeather in 2019, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes takes into account a holistic view of hurricane impacts, including flooding rainfall and other parameters, which, on average, result in more deaths and damage than wind alone.
In the NWS's report, recommendations include a collaboration between field offices to ensure consistent messaging on a storm system's status, or "coordinated reference," as the report put it, to avoid confusion.
Learning from Ida to better protect lives and property
"No matter the disaster, one of the great things about Americans is our ability to take a critical look at disastrous situations and determine how to work together to make improvements, so next time we can better 'weather the storm,'" Porter said.
Improving communication and coordination between the NWS and emergency management officials will be essential to ensure that communities are adequately prepared for the impacts of future hurricanes and other severe weather events.
The NWS's mission is to "protect lives and property." By conducting a post-storm assessment such as this one, the agency can work to better its forecasts for future disasters.
Susan Buchanan, an NWS spokesperson, told The Washington Post that the agency has already begun addressing several recommendations highlighted in the report.
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