Chances for a tropical system to form prior to June 1 now waning
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published May 19, 2022 12:02 PM EDT
|
Updated May 19, 2022 12:37 PM EDT
The chances for a preseason tropical storm in the Atlantic basin are waning by the day, AccuWeather meteorologists say, though there is the chance for a meteorological phenomenon to develop around Central America that could support development in the weeks ahead.
Atlantic hurricane season begins on Wednesday, June 1.
The period from May to June represents a time in the tropical Atlantic where easterly breezes from Africa begin to ramp up. At the same time, the strengthening angle of the sun leads to a gradual increase in thunderstorm activity in the tropics.
The combination of these two factors leads to the development of a broad area of slowly spinning low pressure near Central America, known as the Central American Gyre. Because of the slightly lower pressure and weak spin in the atmosphere, it can assist in the development of tropical depressions and storms.
The formation of the gyre is very gradual and anticipated in weak form over the next week or two. A slight hold-up in the formation of this gyre contributed to the delay in the formation of a potential tropical system over waters surrounding Central America, including the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
"Exactly where the center of the gyre forms can impact where and whether or not a tropical system may form in the first place," Pydynowski said, adding, "should the gyre focus over the middle of Central America, it could prevent a tropical system from forming in the first place."
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"New information indicates that the gyre is likely to be weak and could be centered more on the Pacific side of Central America," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
If the gyre forms farther to the west, it may assist with tropical development over the eastern Pacific. Conversely, if the gyre centers farther to the east, it could spur development over the Caribbean instead.
"Dry air was extensive and a significant amount of wind shear was evident over the Gulf of Mexico and much of the Caribbean as of Thursday," Pydynowski said. Both factors tend to inhibit tropical development. However, thunderstorms continued to erupt south of the dry air zone near Central America.
Should dry air and wind shear diminish in the region, and forecasters say there are signs both conditions may occur in a gradual sense over the next week, the door could be opened for tropical development somewhere from the western Caribbean to the southern Gulf of Mexico and even farther west over the eastern Pacific.
The region from near Central America to waters along the shores of the southern United States are the main locations meteorologists look for tropical development during May and June.
Among all the factors AccuWeather forecasters consider when formulating a forecast, one computer model in recent days had been showing signs of significant tropical development, but its conjecture wasn't compelling enough given all of the other elements at play -- steering winds, formation of the gyre, dry air -- to warrant any forecast changes by AccuWeather meteorologists. Therefore, the risk of tropical development was initially given a low chance this week and has since dropped close to zero.
Along with the anticipated formation of the Central American Gyre, showers and thunderstorms that have been steadily developing over the southwestern Caribbean and the eastern Pacific will continue in the coming days, forecasters say.
"The Central American Gyre is likely to cause areas of heavy rain and potential flooding to expand northward across Central America during the next week," said Pydynowski. Where torrential rain repeats over several hours to a few days will be the greatest risk of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in the region. There is the potential for 4-8 inches of rain (100-200 mm) to fall with local amounts to 12 inches (300 mm).
Tropical development is not expected over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific through at least early next week.
AccuWeather's team of tropical meteorologists, led by Dan Kottlowski, expects an above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2022 with multiple direct impacts on the United States.
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News / Hurricane
Chances for a tropical system to form prior to June 1 now waning
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published May 19, 2022 12:02 PM EDT | Updated May 19, 2022 12:37 PM EDT
The chances for a preseason tropical storm in the Atlantic basin are waning by the day, AccuWeather meteorologists say, though there is the chance for a meteorological phenomenon to develop around Central America that could support development in the weeks ahead.
Atlantic hurricane season begins on Wednesday, June 1.
The period from May to June represents a time in the tropical Atlantic where easterly breezes from Africa begin to ramp up. At the same time, the strengthening angle of the sun leads to a gradual increase in thunderstorm activity in the tropics.
The combination of these two factors leads to the development of a broad area of slowly spinning low pressure near Central America, known as the Central American Gyre. Because of the slightly lower pressure and weak spin in the atmosphere, it can assist in the development of tropical depressions and storms.
The formation of the gyre is very gradual and anticipated in weak form over the next week or two. A slight hold-up in the formation of this gyre contributed to the delay in the formation of a potential tropical system over waters surrounding Central America, including the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
"Exactly where the center of the gyre forms can impact where and whether or not a tropical system may form in the first place," Pydynowski said, adding, "should the gyre focus over the middle of Central America, it could prevent a tropical system from forming in the first place."
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• Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
"New information indicates that the gyre is likely to be weak and could be centered more on the Pacific side of Central America," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
If the gyre forms farther to the west, it may assist with tropical development over the eastern Pacific. Conversely, if the gyre centers farther to the east, it could spur development over the Caribbean instead.
"Dry air was extensive and a significant amount of wind shear was evident over the Gulf of Mexico and much of the Caribbean as of Thursday," Pydynowski said. Both factors tend to inhibit tropical development. However, thunderstorms continued to erupt south of the dry air zone near Central America.
Should dry air and wind shear diminish in the region, and forecasters say there are signs both conditions may occur in a gradual sense over the next week, the door could be opened for tropical development somewhere from the western Caribbean to the southern Gulf of Mexico and even farther west over the eastern Pacific.
The region from near Central America to waters along the shores of the southern United States are the main locations meteorologists look for tropical development during May and June.
Among all the factors AccuWeather forecasters consider when formulating a forecast, one computer model in recent days had been showing signs of significant tropical development, but its conjecture wasn't compelling enough given all of the other elements at play -- steering winds, formation of the gyre, dry air -- to warrant any forecast changes by AccuWeather meteorologists. Therefore, the risk of tropical development was initially given a low chance this week and has since dropped close to zero.
Along with the anticipated formation of the Central American Gyre, showers and thunderstorms that have been steadily developing over the southwestern Caribbean and the eastern Pacific will continue in the coming days, forecasters say.
"The Central American Gyre is likely to cause areas of heavy rain and potential flooding to expand northward across Central America during the next week," said Pydynowski. Where torrential rain repeats over several hours to a few days will be the greatest risk of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in the region. There is the potential for 4-8 inches of rain (100-200 mm) to fall with local amounts to 12 inches (300 mm).
Tropical development is not expected over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific through at least early next week.
AccuWeather's team of tropical meteorologists, led by Dan Kottlowski, expects an above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2022 with multiple direct impacts on the United States.
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