Beyond Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa to blast Cuba, Bahamas before turning toward Bermuda
Hurricane Melissa has already unleashed deadly flooding, and after sweeping over Jamaica, it will take aim at Cuba and the Bahamas with life-threatening conditions.
AccuWeather’s Jon Porter and Geoff Cornish break down the latest details in the hours after Hurricane Melissa’s record-breaking landfall in Jamaica.
After crossing Jamaica, Melissa will remain a dangerous storm with flooding rain, high winds and destructive storm surge. The hurricane is forecast to depart from eastern Cuba Wednesday morning before reaching the central Bahamas and perhaps Bermuda as it accelerates northeastward. Depending on Melissa's exact track, there is the potential for impacts in Atlantic Canada and Europe.
Melissa has been producing areas of heavy rain and flooding since it began to organize over the Caribbean a week ago. The flooding has already claimed lives in Hispaniola, home to the Dominican Republic and Haiti, even though the center of the storm was hundreds of miles to the south.
While the storm's central core, or eyewall, will remain the most dangerous due to the combined effect of torrential rain, flooding and wind, areas of heavy rain will expand outwards hundreds of miles away from the center to raise the risk of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly in the Caribbean.
Southeastern Cuba next in Melissa's path, after Jamaica
Melissa made landfall at 3:10 a.m. EDT Wednesday morning near Chivirico, Cuba with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, a Major Category 3 hurricane. Melissa will move north from southeastern Cuba through Wednesday before remerging in the waters of the Atlantic.
Impacts in Cuba will be extreme due to 12-18 inches of rain and locally higher amounts to 2 to 3 feet, and wind gusts of 120-140 mph and locally higher bursts.
Lowland areas along Cuba's southeast coast will face risks of both coastal inundation and freshwater flooding as rivers rapidly rise from more than a foot of rain. Small streamlets will turn into raging torrents. Mudslides and washouts will threaten some communities and may block or destroy roads and bridges in the area.
Hispaniola remains at risk for life-threatening flash flooding
Farther to the east, in Hispaniola, torrential rain, flash flooding and mudslides pose the greatest risk to lives and property. Because this island has been drenched with torrential rain since early last week, there is a heightened risk of flash flooding in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Many of Haiti's forests have been cut down, making the nation much more vulnerable to these conditions.
Dangerous seas and surf will extend well to the east of Melissa's eye, creating dangers for area fishing interests and shipping.
Significant impacts anticipated in central Bahamas
After Melissa crosses Jamaica and then eastern Cuba, the hurricane is expected to track over the central Bahamas, likely as a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Melissa's forward speed will also start to increase, limiting the duration of the heavy rain, high winds and erosive surf. Still, major impacts are anticipated across the central Bahamas.
The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the central and southeastern Bahamas is a 3.
As Melissa continues to pick up forward speed, steering breezes may tug progressively more on the storm and could pull it more to the west.
Melissa may track close to Bermuda
Initially, this path will be critical for direct impacts on Bermuda from Thursday afternoon to Friday. At this time, Melissa is projected to be a one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.
Tropical storm conditions are likely to spread out well over 100 miles from the center. Wind gusts in Bermuda are forecast to range from 60-80 mph with 1-2 inches of rain. Respective StormMax™ winds are 95 mph, with rainfall of 5 inches.
Potential impacts in Atlantic Canada, Europe from Melissa
The combination of the non-tropical storm over the United States and Melissa offshore will create a period of drenching rain, gusty winds and rough seas that progress northward from the Carolinas to Maine.
If a non-tropical storm and jet stream manage to grab hold of Melissa, after the hurricane passes Bermuda, the storm could be drawn in close to Atlantic Canada early this weekend.
Should the non-tropical storm capture Melissa and tug it westward, the result would be heavier rain, stronger winds and rough seas from Nova Scotia and New Brunswick to the island of Newfoundland. It may also become difficult to determine how much rain and wind are associated with Melissa versus the non-tropical storm.
"If Melissa is not captured by the storm over the northeastern United States, it may continue on across the North Atlantic and could affect the United Kingdom or the northwestern part of the European mainland next week as a tropical wind and rainstorm," Porter said.
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