Category 5 Hurricane Melissa to unleash life-threatening catastrophe in Jamaica
Category 5 Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean will take a turn toward Jamaica and unleash some of nature's most intense fury on the island nation with a high risk of great loss of life and catastrophic damage on Tuesday.
Veteran storm chaser Brandon Clement reported live from Jamaica as Hurricane Melissa intensified, bringing worsening conditions to the island nation.
A dire situation is unfolding in the Caribbean as Category 5 Hurricane Melissa is forecast to make a right, northward turn and cross Jamaica like a giant buzzsaw and firehose at the same time. AccuWeather meteorologists continue to warn of the consequences of such an event, which could result in a humanitarian crisis with great loss of life and long-term devastation due to tremendous flooding, mudslides and high winds.
As of the latest advisory as of mid-afternoon on Monday, it was found that maximum sustained winds in Melissa's eyewall had increased to 175 mph, making it the strongest hurricane of the year for the Atlantic basin and perhaps the most intense hurricane in terms of central pressure for so late in the season.
"People choosing to ride out the storm in unsafe areas, or those who are unable to move out of harm's way, will face great peril," AccuWeather's Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said. "An extremely urgent humanitarian crisis may follow. The devastation from the electricity infrastructure alone may take months to repair. Food refrigeration and safe drinking water may not be available for an extended period."
Landfall is forecast to be Tuesday morning on the western to central portion of Jamaica, but dangerous to catastrophic effects will be felt throughout the island. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly late Monday and Monday night. The storm will continue to rage on the island well into Tuesday night.
"Everyone needs to follow evacuation orders in high-risk areas," Porter warned. "People in Jamaica have not experienced a direct strike from a major hurricane in nearly 40 years. Hurricane Gilbert made landfall in 1988 as a Category 3 storm, moving much faster than Melissa is forecast to move when the eye reaches the southern coast of Jamaica. Extreme impacts could last for hours in places in the path of the eyewall as the hurricane crosses the island."
This image of Hurricane Melissa as a Category 5 was captured on Monday morning, Oct. 27, 2025. The massive core and eye of the hurricane were visible just south of Jamaica. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
The risk to lives and damage unleashed may be similar to that of Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas in 2019, and Hurricane Andrew in Florida in 1992. Both were deadly Category 5 hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Even though Melissa's peak wind intensity could slip from a Category 5 hurricane to a Category 4 just prior to landfall, which may take a small edge off peak winds, the effects of that change may be only slight. Such a dip in intensity could occur if an eyewall replacement cycle occurs. Melissa is currently forecast to reach Jamaica as a Category 5.
AccuWeather meteorologists have maintained since early last week that the RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes, which experts at the company developed, is a 5—the top category that factors in not only wind speed but also the effects of wind speed, rainfall, and storm surge on lives and property.
Wind gusts in the dangerous eyewall of the hurricane will range between 120 and 160 mph, leveling trees and poorly constructed homes and businesses. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust for Melissa in Jamaica is 180 mph.
Jamaica's mountainous terrain will amplify the rainfall and, in turn, greatly increase the effects of flash floods and mudslides. A general 2 to 3 feet of rain will pour down on the island nation of Jamaica, with the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall for Melissa in the western and central Caribbean of 50 inches.
Small streamlets will turn into raging torrents. Larger rivers will rapidly rise with fast-moving water on the floodplains. Roads and bridges may be washed away, blocked or severely damaged, cutting off access to some communities, other than by aircraft.
Jamaica's southern coastline is complex, ranging from large, shallow bays with flat coastal plain zones to steep cliffs and sharp drop-offs just offshore. Where water is funneled into the shallow bays near and just east of where the eye makes landfall, the storm surge will be greatest. At this time, a storm surge of 10-15 feet is forecast along the south-central coast of Jamaica with the AccuWeather StormMax™ surge at 15 feet.
Due to shifting winds as the hurricane approaches and then begins to move away, a storm surge at least several feet is forecast throughout the shoreline of Jamaica.
Last week, AccuWeather's team of meteorologists warned of the rapid intensification that would take place with Melissa soon after the inhibiting effect of wind shear (disruptive breezes) decreased. During the 24-hour period from late morning Saturday to late morning Sunday, Melissa rapidly strengthened from a 70-mph tropical storm to a 140-mph Category 4 hurricane. This strengthening is double the required 35 mph jump in 24 hours to be considered for rapid intensification.
There have been no potent tropical storms or hurricanes in the Caribbean this year. This means the basin has had all summer to heat up, with only a slight temperature drop due to the change in seasons in recent weeks.
"Not only is the surface water in much of the Caribbean warm, but the water is warm down deep," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "Because of that, the churning of the water from the slow-moving storm has not brought up chilly water from the depths as would normally be the case. Hurricanes need warm water of about 80 F or higher to thrive."
Beyond Jamaica, there will be significant impacts from Melissa in central and eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas by midweek, before possible impacts in Bermuda and perhaps Atlantic Canada and even northwest Europe a week later.
The greatest swells generated by Melissa will be contained in the Caribbean by the Greater Antilles. However, Melissa is forecast to remain a hurricane well beyond the Caribbean and will stir up dangerous seas near and northeast of the Bahamas in the days ahead. Shipping and cruise interests are strongly urged to monitor the future path and intensity of Melissia over the western and northern Atlantic.
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