Advancements in forecasting and warnings helped save lives during extreme weather in 2024

Flash flooding, straight-line wind gusts, wildfires, derechos, and more than 1,000 tornadoes have caused billions of dollars of damage in the first half of 2024.

Millions of Americans have endured relentless rounds of severe weather and tornado outbreaks during the first six months of 2024.  

Expert meteorologists at AccuWeather say advancements in long-range forecasting, rapid alerts providing people with more time to prepare for impacts, and ongoing collaboration with hundreds of organizations and agencies helped to save lives and protect property.  

“We have some of the world’s worst and most severe weather here in the United States, but we have the best weather forecasts and weather warnings because of the innovative research and development that comes out of the academic community, computer forecast guidance, new radar technology, the government severe weather warnings for the public issued by the National Weather Service and, of course, what we do here at AccuWeather in America’s Weather Industry: providing the proven most accurate forecast and warnings to people and businesses globally,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter.  

Leaders at AccuWeather’s Global Weather Center say decades of collaboration between private, government and academic sectors have benefited millions of Americans with more time to prepare and react to severe and extreme weather impacts this year.  

“It’s a unique partnership where meteorologists across the country work together in what we call the weather enterprise, with the shared public service mission of saving lives and protecting property,” explained Porter. “With all of the technology, the improvements in radar, and the weather warnings now sent directly through the AccuWeather app to phones, we believe that saved dozens of lives in recent severe weather outbreaks. Even 15 years ago, the death toll tragically could have been much higher, perhaps dozes to hundreds of lives lost in scenarios where intense tornadoes struck populated places.”  

Following a derecho and multiple tornadoes that slammed Houston in May, one Texas resident said alerts from the AccuWeather app provided her with enough time to get her family to safety.  

“AccuWeather is the only reason my family was safe during the Houston severe storms on May 16. Your alerts’ timeliness gave me the time I needed to prepare my family and my  home for the onslaught we would soon endure. My cell phone’s emergency alerts did not go off until 20 minutes after the storm had fully passed. That’s the difference between life and death,” Michele Anderson wrote to AccuWeather. “I highly advocate AccuWeather to all of my followers and also preach that having multiple ways to get alerts because... my other methods failed me. By the time the storm was on top of us, merely 7 minutes after AccuWeather alerted me of the hurricane force winds, I’d lost cell service and data was intermittent. But due to your platform, we had everything we needed ready to go.” 

Porter says progress made in recent years would not be possible without research, funding, and innovation from universities, government agencies, and private companies.  

“Advancements in forecasting technology and accelerating the speed of severe weather alerts sent to cell phones have helped millions of Americans prepare for extreme weather impacts this year. The improvements would not have been possible without the hard work, dedication, and funding from private, public, government, and academic members of the weather enterprise all working together,” said Porter. “Each sector has an important role to play in the American weather enterprise. Commercial weather services like AccuWeather, broadcast meteorologists, and emergency management officials are on the front line, communicating weather threats to the public, providing what some have estimated to be 95% of the forecasts and warnings directly to people and businesses. Universities and research groups provide valuable insight and resources to help advance and improve modeling and forecasts. Government agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operate complex and critical weather infrastructure for the United States, including surface observations, satellites, buoys, upper air observations, and more than 150 weather radar sites across the country.”  

Recent advancements in weather forecasting include funding for a data assimilation consortium to improve forecasting, artificial intelligence models used to predict wildland fire activity, investments in ocean observation robotic floats for weather and climate research, and new aircraft to assist with mapping missions and aerial surveys after tornadoes, major flooding, and hurricane landfalls.  

AccuWeather’s team of expert meteorologists and long-range forecasters continue to develop innovations and features used by millions of people to prepare for impactful and dangerous weather.  
 
All AccuWeather app users in the United States now have free access to AccuWeather Lightning Alerts, which utilizes push alerts to mobile devices through the AccuWeather app to warn people of lightning strikes within 10 miles of their location.  

AccuWeather partnered with Ambient Weather® to advance hyperlocal weather reporting  by utilizing more than 250,000 Ambient weather stations and cameras.  

AccuWeather Founder and Executive Chairman Dr. Joel Myers signed the ‘Global Climate Science-Media Action Pledge’ in January. AccuWeather joined scientific organizations and other groups pledging cooperation to ensure climate change-related communications are scientifically accurate, accessible, and actionable. The pledge affirms that climate change is real, dangerous, and already causing damage.  

The AccuWeather HeatWave Counter and Severity Index ™ debuted last summer to help the public better understand the severity, intensity, and duration of heat waves.  

Extreme Weather in the First Six Months of 2024 

February: 
 
> Winter storms and atmospheric rivers in California cause an estimated $9-11 billion in damage and economic losses. 
 
> The Smokehouse Creek Fire destroyed homes and ranches, burning more than 1 million acres in Texas and Oklahoma. 

 March: 
 
> The exclusive AccuWeather 2024 U.S. Tornado Forecast issued on March 6 accurately predicted that ‘Tornado Alley May Roar Back to Life’ with an above historical average number of tornadoes. 
 
> The exclusive AccuWeather 2024 U.S. Hurricane Forecast issued on March 27 was the first major source to warn of an ‘explosive’ hurricane season on the horizon, predicting 20 to 25 named storms and four to six direct impacts on the United States.  

> The lack of cold temperatures, snowfall, and ice cover on lakes cost businesses in the northern Plains and upper Midwest an estimated $8 billion in economic losses following the warmest winter on record in the United States.  

April:  

> AccuWeather’s long-range forecasting team issued multiple alerts warning of tornado and severe weather outbreaks with multiple days of advanced notice, providing families, businesses, and emergency leaders more time to prepare.  

May:  

> A derecho and multiple tornadoes hit the Houston metro causing an estimated $5-7 billion in damage and economic losses. Damage to transmission lines in southeast Texas left millions of people without power and air conditioning for days in scorching heat. 

> AccuWeather expert meteorologists issued an advisory on May 22 about record warm sea-surface temperatures that raise the risk of tropical storms and hurricanes rapidly intensifying along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean coastlines.  

> AccuWeather forecasters urged people traveling and planning outdoor events over the Memorial Day weekend to prepare for tornadoes, flash flooding and dangerous heat in several highly populated regions across the country. More than 22 people were killed by tornadoes and severe weather over the holiday weekend.  

Severe Weather Hazards on the Horizon This Summer 

Storms have caused billions of dollars in damage and economic losses, and claimed dozens of lives during the six months of 2024, but AccuWeather expert meteorologists say the biggest threats of the year could be right around the corner.  

AccuWeather’s 2024 U.S. Hurricane Forecast issued in March warned of an ‘explosive’ hurricane season that could bring four to six direct impacts to the United States.  

“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and direct U.S. impacts,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva. “All indications are pointing toward a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.” 

DaSilva said coastlines along Texas, South Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and the Carolinas face a heightened risk of direct tropical impacts this year.  

Wildfires and hazardous smoke are also a safety and public health concern this summer.  

AccuWeather’s 2024 U.S. Wildfire Forecast released in April warned that fires burning in Canada could once again lead to smoky and hazy skies over cities across the northern and eastern United States later this year.  

Long-range forecasters at AccuWeather predict 4-6 million acres of land to burn across the United States this year. The forecast calls for fewer fires and less acreage to burn in the U.S. compared to last year, as well as the historical average. 

AccuWeather expert meteorologists encourage people in wildfire-prone areas to remove flammable materials away from homes and buildings, prepare emergency kits, and review evacuation plans so they are ready to take action if a wildfire sparks or spreads in their area.   
 
More than 1,000 tornadoes have ripped across the country this year, many occurring in devastating severe weather outbreaks. The spring severe weather season and tornado threats typically wind down in June, but AccuWeather expert meteorologists warn that a ‘second severe weather season’ could bring more tornado threats in the fall.  

AccuWeather urges people to stay connected and prepare for potential severe weather threats later this year. AccuWeather thanks the public, private, government, and academic members of America’s weather enterprise for their tireless work to help advance the mission of saving lives and protecting property.  

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