What to know about the growing potential for a 'super El Niño' later this year
An El Niño watch has been issued, and AccuWeather long-range forecasters say there is a chance it becomes just the third “super El Niño” in the past 30 years.
El Niño and La Niña are some of the main drivers of a long-range seasonal forecast. AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok explains.
A major shift in the Pacific Ocean known as the El Niño climate pattern is increasingly likely to develop this summer and continue through the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says La Niña conditions — when waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator are cooler than historical averages — remain in place for now, but they are not expected to last much longer.
El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle that occurs every few years. It develops when ocean water in the tropical Eastern Pacific near the equator is at least 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees F) above long-term averages for at least three consecutive months. This year’s El Niño could intensify into what forecasters call a “super El Niño,” defined as ocean temperatures reaching 2 degrees C or greater above average in the ENSO region, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
A global map highlighting the El Nino/La Nina region current temperatures as of March 10, 2026.
On Thursday, the CPC issued an El Niño watch, with forecasters estimating a 50–60% chance of a transition to El Niño in late summer and beyond.
Could this become a super El Niño?
While earlier forecast models pointed to a spring or early summer transition, the latest data suggests the shift may occur later in the year, according to an AccuWeather meteorologist.
This graphic shows what leads to El Nino conditions.
“We feel El Niño will form this summer, early to mid is the expectations. Intensity is uncertain but there is potential for a moderate to possibly strong El Nino this fall into winter,” AccuWeather Long Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. “Water temperatures expected over the equatorial Pacific and Indian ocean are supporting an El Niño with impacts on the tropical season and southern U.S. moisture this summer and fall.”
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva says a transition to El Niño is expected this summer and is likely to strengthen during the peak of hurricane season.
Currently, AccuWeather’s long-range forecasters and hurricane experts estimate there is a 15% chance of a super El Niño developing by the end of hurricane season in November.
It has been about a decade since the last super El Niño, with 2015–2016 and 1997–1998 reaching that benchmark. The 2023–2024 event came close but did not meet the official threshold.
What El Niño means for the Atlantic hurricane season and U.S. weather
El Nino development probability during hurricane season 2026.
If El Niño develops during the summer, one of the biggest impacts could be on the Atlantic hurricane season, which typically peaks in September.
"El Niño tends to increase the mid- to upper-level wind shear (stronger winds with height and change in direction) on a more frequent basis across portions of the Atlantic Basin," Pastelok said. "This can lead to less storm development: a roadblock to a hyperactive hurricane season this year."
Higher wind shear makes it more difficult for tropical systems to organize and strengthen. As a result, El Niño years often feature fewer tropical storms and hurricanes compared to La Niña seasons. El Niño can also shift where storms are more likely to form, with activity sometimes favored farther out in the Atlantic rather than closer to the U.S. coastline.
Meanwhile, El Niño often has the opposite effect in the eastern Pacific, where hurricane activity typically increases.
“The strength of El Niño late in the season could have a dramatic impact on late October/November activity,” DaSilva said. “The stronger the El Niño gets, the greater the chance for a quieter end to the season.”
Beyond hurricanes, El Niño can significantly influence U.S. rainfall patterns. Parts of the West that have experienced prolonged dry conditions could get increased precipitation if the pattern strengthens later this year.
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