AccuWeather More Accurate than All Other Known Sources Predicting Milton’s Development, Track and Intensity
AccuWeather’s forecasts were more specific and more actionable and best described the growing risk that a hurricane could cause widespread impacts across Florida.
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Storm chaser Aaron Rigsby captured this drone video of the widespread storm surge damage to homes along the barrier islands of Manasota Key, Florida, on Oct. 11, which many have remained closed.
AccuWeather’s forecasts for Hurricane Milton were more accurate and more consistent and provided more advance notice that a historic hurricane could impact Florida.
• On Sunday, Oct. 5, three days in advance of landfall, AccuWeather was the first known source to state that Milton could be a “historic storm for Floridians and one of Florida’s most damaging and costly hurricanes ever.”
• On Sept. 29, nearly a week before Milton developed, AccuWeather was the only known source to say the storm:
– “could bring damaging winds and flooding to Florida, including areas recovering from Helene”
– “rapid intensification is possible”
• Beginning on Friday, Sept. 27, 12 days before landfall, AccuWeather was the only known source to consistently predict a tropical storm or hurricane would develop and track toward Florida. Other sources, including the NHC, flip-flopped, first predicting development and then downplaying the risk before quickly reversing course.
• AccuWeather’s track forecast for the storm averaged 1.7% greater accuracy than the track forecast from the NHC.
• AccuWeather’s intensity forecast for the storm averaged 10% greater accuracy than the intensity forecast from the NHC.
• AccuWeather’s forecast in Tampa on Wednesday was more correct and contained far more detail than those from The Weather Channel, who incorrectly predicted “tropical storm conditions likely” when, in fact, there were wind gusts near 100mph.
– AccuWeather: Hurricane Milton; strong winds; life-threatening storm surge, flooding rain, power outages and isolated tornadoes.
– The Weather Channel: Tropical storm conditions likely; windy with rain, heavy at times.
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A water rescue boat moves in flood waters at an apartment complex in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024, in Clearwater, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)
AccuWeather’s forecasts were more specific and more actionable and best described the growing risk that a hurricane could cause widespread impacts across Florida, including:
• At 5 a.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 5, AccuWeather issued a track and intensity forecast six hours BEFORE the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and all other known sources. As was the case with Beryl, Debby, Francine and Helene earlier in the season, AccuWeather customers once again exclusively benefited from this extra advance notice,enabling them to make the best decisions in preparation for the storm’s impacts.
• Over four days before landfall, AccuWeather was the first known source to predict Milton would make landfall as a hurricane along the west coast of Florida. This predicted landfall was only 11 miles away from the actual landfall point!
• AccuWeather was the first known source to accurately predict the significant flooding risk across the Florida Peninsula.
– On the morning of Saturday, Oct. 5, AccuWeather predicted widespread 8-12” of rain and flooding. At the same time, the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) predicted only a “marginal” risk of excessive rainfall.
• As a result of AccuWeather exclusively issuing seven-day track and intensity forecasts and initiating forecasts in advance of the NHC's five-day track and intensity forecasts, AccuWeather provided on average 17 hours more advance notice on the forecast location and intensity of Milton than the NHC and all other known sources.
• Beginning 11 days before landfall, AccuWeather was the first and consistently the only known source to forecast the growing risk of a hurricane impact and landfall in Florida. This included:
– On Sept. 28, AccuWeather was the first known source to correctly forecast a high risk of development between Oct. 2 and 5, while other known sources, including the NHC, were predicting a medium risk.
– On Oct. 1, AccuWeather was the only known source to specifically forecast a moderate risk for flooding and strong winds across the Florida Peninsula. At the same time, the NHC just stated “interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of the system.”
– On Oct. 2, the AccuWeather Network, along with other AccuWeather forecast content available to customers, stated that a “hurricane is possible” next week with impacts to Florida that could include damaging winds, flooding and storm surge.
– On Oct. 3, two days before Milton developed, AccuWeather was the only known source to correctly forecast that “the Sunshine State will be at greatest risk from the most significant impacts.”
• AccuWeather’s expert hurricane forecasters issued exclusive AccuWeather Alerts™ for Hurricane Threat for Florida on the morning of Oct. 5. This was 42 hours BEFORE the NHC issued Hurricane Watches for Florida.
• 41 hours BEFORE the National Hurricane Center and all other known sources, AccuWeather exclusively issued its first storm surge forecast for this storm along the Gulf Coast of Florida.
• AccuWeather’s exclusive AssetReport™ enabled business customers to automatically identify specific assets at risk and important location-specific details such as how much rain, wind and storm surge were expected at each asset. Additionally, these hazard areas can be displayed on interactive maps within the AccuWeather For Business Portal, enabling quick identification of impacted locations and business continuity and supply chain concerns.
AccuWeather was the only known source to use the following unique, location-specific wording on digital platforms such as:
• “a tropical storm may develop in the Gulf of Mexico later this week into the weekend”
• “rush preparations to completion, life-threatening hurricane conditions begin at night”
• “life-threatening storm surge, flooding rain, power outages, isolated tornadoes and flying debris”
• “exercise caution around debris, power lines and areas of flooding; power outages may last for days”
AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologists issued numerous life-saving SkyGuard® Tornado Warnings which in many cases provided significantly more advance notice than any other source.
A resident in Wellington, Florida, spotted this tornado from a distance on Oct. 9, during a period of severe weather.
• These warnings benefited AccuWeather for Business SkyGuard® customers as well as users of the AccuWeather AlertTM service, including our subscription services such as Premium+ in the AccuWeather app. Examples include:
– AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologists issued a Tornado Warning for northwestern Wellington, Florida, that exclusively provided 32 minutes of advance notice before the damaging tornado struck, 24 minutes of ADDITIONAL advance notice or more than FIVE Times the advance notice of the NWS and other known sources, who provided six minutes of advance notice. This valuable additional time, only provided by AccuWeather, enabled customers to be better prepared and offered more time for people to seek safe shelter ahead of the destructive EF2 tornado.
– AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologists issued a Tornado Warning that exclusively provided 30 minutes of advance notice, 27 minutes of ADDITIONAL advance notice as compared to the NWS and other known sources who only provided three minutes of advance notice before a damaging tornado struck near the North Palm Beach County Airport.
– Additionally, earlier in the day, AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologists issued an AccuWeather Alerts™ for Tornado Threat for parts of central and southern Florida more than SIX hours BEFORE the government and all other sources issued a tornado watch. AccuWeather’s notification was the only known source to highlight the increasing tornado threat, exclusively providing additional notice and giving people more time to prepare.
More than 100 times every year, AccuWeather has been documented to provide more accurate, more advanced notification of significant and extreme weather events that impact businesses and threaten the health, welfare and lives of individuals. AccuWeather has proven to be the most accurate source of weather forecasts and warnings.
These are additional examples of the many weather events where AccuWeather provided superior forecasts and impact descriptions to people, communities, and businesses, helping them better prepare and stay safe.
Better Prepare Your Business with AccuWeather's Hurricane Warning Service. Contact AccuWeather immediately to learn more.
