AccuWeather First Known Source to Forecast Flooding and Tropical Storm Impacts for Carolinas Due to 'No Name' Tropical Wind and Rainstorm

AccuWeather issued a track and intensity forecast 26 hours BEFORE the NHC and all other known sources issued their first track and intensity forecast.

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A tropical wind and rainstorm brought historic flooding and tropical storm conditions to parts of the Carolinas on Sept. 16. It was never officially named by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Nearly 20 inches of rain fell along the North Carolina coast, and some locations were deluged by over 5 inches in one hour, causing catastrophic flooding. On Sept. 14, AccuWeather issued a track and intensity forecast 26 hours Before the NHC and all other known sources issued their first track and intensity forecast. As with Beryl, Debby, and Francine earlier in the season, AccuWeather customers once again exclusively benefited from this extra advance notice, enabling them to make the best decisions in preparation for the storm’s impacts.

• AccuWeather's first intensity and track forecast was issued on Sept. 14 when an area of rain and thunderstorms off the North Carolina coast had not yet developed into an organized tropical system. This exclusive track forecast provided 26 hours of additional advance notice ahead of the NHC and all other known sources. Recognizing the potential impacts to lives and property, AccuWeather began referring to this as a tropical rainstorm and correctly predicted it would bring tropical storm impacts to the Carolinas on Monday, Sept. 16. This additional day of valuable advance notice exclusively provided AccuWeather customers with more time to best prepare for and react to the risks posed by the storm.

• The NHC never officially named the storm, which brought severe flooding, wind gusts to nearly 80 mph, and storm surge flooding to parts of North Carolina. In contrast, more than 26 hours before the government and other known sources issued their first track and intensity forecast for the storm, AccuWeather rated it a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact^TM Scale for Hurricanes, the second-level designation on the scale. This rating provides the most accurate, holistic view of the storm’s dangerous impacts, enabling people to be best prepared.  

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• AccuWeather issued AccuWeather Alerts™ for Tropical Storm Threat 26 hours BEFORE the NHC issued a Tropical Storm Warning for parts of North and South Carolina.  AccuWeather’s notification was the first known notification of the threat of a tropical storm in these areas. 

• On Tuesday, Sept. 10, AccuWeather was the first known source to predict tropical development off the Southeast coast, 24 hours in advance of other known sources, including the NHC.  

• On Sept. 3, 13 days in advance of the storm, AccuWeather’s Expert Long-Range Forecasting Team correctly identified the potential for tropical development off the Southeast coast in mid-September. The forecast accurately predicted “high winds, coastal flooding and heavy rain.” 

• AccuWeather’s exclusive AssetReport™ enabled business customers to automatically identify specific assets at risk and important location-specific details such as how much rain, wind, and storm surge was expected at each asset. Additionally, these hazard areas can be displayed on interactive maps within the AccuWeather For Business Portal, enabling quick identification of impacted locations, supply chain, business continuity, and supply chain concerns.

• AccuWeather’s exclusive Local StormMax^TM for wind (80 mph) and rain (20 inches) was the most accurate forecast for the highest wind and rain impacts. Wind gusts near 80 mph were reported, and 20 inches of rain fell in the hardest-hit area. AccuWeather is the only source that provides this unique tool, geared at providing insight into the highest wind and rainfall that may occur in area possible in areas impacted by the storm.  Meanwhile, the NHC and other known sources forecast only peak rain amounts of “near 8 inches” and wind gusts of 50 mph. 

• Five days in advance of the flooding, AccuWeather was the first known source to correctly identify “significant rainfall potential” across North Carolina due to the expected tropical rainstorm. 

• AccuWeather forecasts in the days leading up to the tropical wind and rainstorm provided better descriptions of the potential impacts and were more detailed than other known sources. This includes language that was available in local forecasts across AccuWeather’s app and website, such as:

-- “watching for tropical development early next week; check AccuWeather often." 

-- “a tropical storm could develop and impact the area with rain and wind Sunday into Monday.” 

-- “a tropical rainstorm may increase the risk of downpours and flooding; check AccuWeather often.” 

More than 100 times every year, AccuWeather has been documented as providing more accurate, more advance notification of significant and extreme weather events that impact businesses and threaten the health, welfare, and lives of individuals. AccuWeather is proven to be the most accurate source of weather forecasts and warnings. 

These are additional examples of the many weather events that AccuWeather provided superior forecasts and impact descriptions to people, communities and businesses, helping them better prepare and stay safe.

Better Prepare Your Business with AccuWeather's Hurricane Warning Service. Contact AccuWeather immediately to learn more. 

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