AccuWeather was the Only Known Source to Most Accurately Forecast Hurricane Helene Would be a 'Flooding Disaster' in the Southern Appalachians

The additional valuable advance notice exclusively provided AccuWeather customers with more time to best prepare for and react to the risks posed by Helene.

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AccuWeather’s forecasts were provided further in advance and most accurately described the catastrophic flooding risk associated with Helene, including:

AccuWeather was the only known source to warn that Helene "could cause a flooding disaster in some areas of the Southeast, especially in the higher terrain of northern Georgia, upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina."

• This language, first used by AccuWeather on Tuesday, over 48 hours in advance of major impacts, was not used by any known source to predict the magnitude of what AccuWeather exclusively called a “once-in-a-generation” storm.

On Sept. 16, AccuWeather issued a track and intensity forecast 19 hours BEFORE the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and all other known sources issued their first track and intensity forecast. As was the case with Beryl, Debby, and Francine earlier in the season, AccuWeather customers once again exclusively benefited from this extra advance notice, enabling them to make the best decisions in preparation for the storm’s impacts.

• Nearly a week before Helene developed, AccuWeather was the only known source to say the storm “would be highly impactful and one of the ways this hurricane season would be remembered.

• AccuWeather used unique messaging to describe the historic and dangerous risk of Helene ahead of other known sources; these included:

• On Wednesday, Sept. 25:

• Helene will be a “once-in-a-generation” storm from eastern Georgia through the western Carolinas and southern Appalachians.

• Significant risk of catastrophic inland flooding in parts of the southern Appalachians.

• Widespread inland power outages that can last for days, perhaps a week.

AccuWeather’s forecasts provided more advanced notice, in some cases weeks before other known sources, and best described Helene’s catastrophic impacts in local communities than any other known source, including:

• AccuWeather had a more accurate landfall forecast for Helene than any other known source:

• The AccuWeather intensity forecast was 52% more accurate than the NHC.

• The AccuWeather location forecast was 22% more accurate than the NHC.

• AccuWeather's first intensity and track forecast was issued on Sept. 22, while an area of rain and thunderstorms in the northern Caribbean had not yet developed into an organized tropical storm. This exclusive track forecast provided 19 hours of additional advanced notice ahead of the NHC and all other known sources.

• Recognizing the potential impacts to lives and property, AccuWeather began referring to this as a tropical rainstorm and correctly predicted it would intensify into a tropical storm and then hurricane, with the potential to be a major hurricane before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Thursday, Sept. 26.

• This additional day of valuable advance notice exclusively provided AccuWeather customers with more time to best prepare for and react to the major risks posed by Helene.

• On Tuesday, Sept. 24, eight hours BEFORE the NHC and other known sources escalated their language, AccuWeather was the first known source to specifically predict "significant, life-threatening flooding that can cause some communities to be cut off with no way to enter or exit due to damage to infrastructure."

• On Monday, Sept. 23, at least a day BEFORE other known sources including the NHC, AccuWeather was the first known source to  say, "there is risk for major flooding in parts of the Southeast including the steep terrain of the southern Appalachians where mudslides can occur."

• At the same time, the NHC key messages on the storm  stated, "isolated flash and urban flooding" and "minor to isolated moderate river flooding possible."

• AccuWeather was the first and most accurate in predicting Helene would strengthen to and make landfall as a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale). No other known source, including the NHC, consistently predicted this. On the morning of Sept. 23, before the NHC had even issued their first forecast, AccuWeather consistently predicted that Helene “could reach Category 4 status.” AccuWeather’s consistent and more accurate forecast provided AccuWeather customers with a consistent message of the threats posed by the storm, enabling them to be better prepared.

• AccuWeather’s exclusive AssetReport™ enabled business customers to automatically identify specific assets at risk and important location-specific details such as how much rain, wind and storm surge were expected at each asset. Additionally, these hazard areas can be displayed on interactive maps within the AccuWeather For Business Portal, enabling quick identification of impacted locations and business continuity and supply chain concerns.

Better Prepare Your Business with AccuWeather's Hurricane Warning Service. Contact AccuWeather immediately to learn more. 

AccuWeather was the ONLY source that consistently and most accurately predicted Helene would be a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale before landfall.

• Eighteen hours BEFORE the National Hurricane Center and all other known sources, AccuWeather exclusively issued its first storm surge forecast for this storm along the entire Gulf Coast of Florida.

• AccuWeather forecasts were more accurate and more descriptive than other sources.

In Asheville, NC:

• AccuWeather accuracy predicted that “Helene’s torrential rain can result in life-threatening flooding” and “watch for and avoid rapidly rising water.”

• The Weather Channel only predicted “potential for heavy rainfall” and “potential for flooding rains.”

In Augusta, GA:

• AccuWeather correctly forecasted that “Helene’s damaging winds can result in widespread, long-lasting power outages; stock up on needed supplies” and “there can be flooding, power outages and isolated tornadoes.”

• The Weather Channel did not mention power outages and only predicted “potential for heavy rainfall” and “tropical storm conditions possible.”

AccuWeather’s expert Long-Range Forecasting Team, including Paul Pastelok and Joe Lundberg, correctly identified the tropical threat weeks in advance, including:

• On Aug. 28: predicted that September would be very active with numerous U.S. tropical threats.

• On Sept. 13, ten days before the storm developed: identified that there would be a quick increase in tropical storm and hurricane activity during September along with potential U.S. impacts.

• On Sept. 16: a week in advance of formation and one day ahead of the NHC, AccuWeather was the first known source to identify that the northern Caribbean was at risk for tropical development between Sept. 22 and 27.

• On Sept. 18: AccuWeather was the first known source to forecast a high risk of development in the northern Caribbean, while other known sources, including the NHC, were predicting a low risk.

• On Tuesday, Sept. 17, nearly a week before formation, AccuWeather was the only known source to state the following:

• AccuWeather is sounding the alarm so people from Louisiana to Florida can be aware that homegrown development may occur in the Caribbean.

• Should all factors come together, this storm can be highly impactful and one of the ways this hurricane season will be remembered.

• Historically, a storm in this region during this time of year rapidly strengthens. Major hurricanes have developed in similar situations in the past.

More than 100 times every year, AccuWeather has been documented to provide more accurate, more advanced notification of significant and extreme weather events that impact businesses and threaten the health, welfare, and lives of individuals. AccuWeather has proven to be the most accurate source of weather forecasts and warnings.

These are additional examples of the many weather events where AccuWeather provided superior forecasts and impact descriptions to people, communities, and businesses, helping them better prepare and stay safe.

Better Prepare Your Business with AccuWeather's Hurricane Warning Service. Contact AccuWeather immediately to learn more. 

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