AccuWeather Challenges X for Labeling Their Accurate Beryl Forecasts as Misinformation
AccuWeather’s team of Expert Meteorologists and Hurricane Experts led the way by forecasting that Beryl would become a major hurricane before other known sources even considered it a tropical storm.
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A retrospective of Hurricane Beryl from the initial forecast to landfall along the Texas coast on July 8.
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X (formerly Twitter) was criticized for labeling AccuWeather's Hurricane Beryl map misinformation, sparking controversy in the weather forecasting community. This action by X's content moderation system raised concerns about the platform's ability to distinguish between legitimate weather information and potentially misleading content accurately. AccuWeather’s track record of superior accuracy in weather forecasting and warnings has saved over 10,000 lives, prevented injury to over 100,000 people, minimized reputational harm and saved companies tens of billions of dollars – all beyond what has been done by the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, and other weather sources
Not only was AccuWeather the first to forecast that Beryl would become a hurricane ahead of the National Hurricane Center, but its expert meteorologists were also correct.
"We issued that forecast because when we know something it is our philosophy to tell people because it's in the interest of public safety," AccuWeather Chief Executive Officer Steven R. Smith told USA TODAY. "In this case here there's no other way to say it, then they just got it wrong. It's just flat out wrong."
AccuWeather argued that the Community Note feature on X was incorrectly used to suggest that official hurricane forecasts should only come from the National Hurricane Center. This situation underscores the importance of balancing content moderation with the need for timely and accurate weather information from various reputable sources, particularly during potentially life-threatening weather events like Hurricane Beryl.
"Every hour, every minute counts when you're talking about preparation and, in this case, "potentially life and death decisions that have to happen here," Smith said. "Typically, hurricanes are a little different than tornadoes and severe thunderstorms where you have minutes to take action... It takes longer for people to actually both recognize it and then take action on it."
AccuWeather Predicts Beryl's Track and Winds Earlier and More Accurately Than Any Other Source
Hurricane Beryl, the first major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, brought destructive winds, flooding, and storm surge to the Windward Islands, Jamaica, the Yucatan Peninsula, and southeast Texas. AccuWeather's team of Expert Meteorologists and Hurricane Experts led the way by forecasting that Beryl would become a Category 3 hurricane before other known sources even considered it a tropical storm.
AccuWeather Provides More Advance Notice: 28-Hours ahead of the National Hurricane Center, Issuing a Potentially Life-Saving Forecast Track Map for Beryl.
AccuWeather was the ONLY SOURCE to issue a forecast track for the storm on Thursday, June 27 - 28 hours BEFORE the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and all other known sources issued their first track. AccuWeather customers once again exclusively benefited from this extra advance notice to make the best decisions to prepare for the storm's impacts.
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AccuWeather Forecasted Beryl's Track 12% More Accurately Track Forecasts Than NHC.
When analyzed for Beryl's entire lifespan, AccuWeather's track for Beryl was 12% more accurate than any other known source, and AccuWeather's average U.S. landfall point forecast was 11% more accurate than the NHC.
AccuWeather's first forecast track was issued on June 27 when an area of rain and thunderstorms had not yet developed into an organized tropical storm. Recognizing the potential impacts to lives and property, AccuWeather began referring to this as a tropical rainstorm and correctly predicted it would intensify and move over Barbados and the Windward Islands on July 1, pass very close to Jamaica on July 3, and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on July 5. This additional day of valuable advance notice exclusively provided AccuWeather customers with more time to best prepare for and react to the risks posed by Beryl.
• On June 29, AccuWeather correctly forecasted that Beryl would make landfall as a hurricane along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on July 5. This was one day BEFORE the NHC and any other known source made a similar forecast to what AccuWeather customers received the previous day. Again, the additional day of advance notice exclusively provided AccuWeather customers with more time to best prepare for Beryl's risks and impacts.
• On the morning of July 2, AccuWeather's expert team of hurricane forecasters correctly forecast that Beryl would track into Texas on July 8 and bring the risk of heavy, flooding rainfall and damaging winds. This was 30 hours BEFORE the NHC and any other known source, which again exclusively provided AccuWeather customers with more precious time to best prepare for Beryl's risks and impacts.
• AccuWeather's expert hurricane forecasters issued exclusive AccuWeather Alerts™ for a Hurricane Threat along the central and upper Texas coast, including Galveston Bay, and its exclusive AccuWeather Alerts™ for a Hurricane Potential for much of eastern Texas, including Houston, during the evening of July 5. This was nearly 24 hours BEFORE the NHC issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Galveston and nearly 24 hours BEFORE the National Weather Service issued a Flood Watch for Houston.
• AccuWeather provided the earliest and most accurate forecast of significant rainfall in Southeastern Texas, being the first source to forecast widespread 8-12" rain amounts in parts of Southeast Texas. When AccuWeather issued this forecast on Friday morning, July 5, a graphic on the NHC website indicated a "slight" risk was the highest risk level for flash flooding over the next five days.
• AccuWeather issued a storm surge forecast for several feet of storm surge for the Texas coast up to and including Galveston on the morning of July 5. This was 12 hours BEFORE the NHC included Galveston in their storm surge forecast.
AccuWeather's More Advanced Intensity Forecasts: 8% More Accurate Wind Predictions than the National Hurricane Center
AccuWeather's intensity forecasts for Hurricane Beryl were 8% more accurate than those of the NHC. This higher level of accuracy in predicting wind speeds enabled more effective planning and resource allocation, ensuring greater safety and minimized damage.
Exclusive Long-Range Forecasts: 61 Hours More Advance Notice
As a result of AccuWeather exclusively issuing 7-day track and intensity forecasts and initiating forecasts well in advance of the NHC and all other known sources' 5-day track and intensity forecasts, AccuWeather provided, on average, 61 hours more advance notice on the forecast location and intensity of Beryl than the NHC and all other known sources.
AccuWeather was the only known source that issued an accurate power outage risk forecast in advance of the storm. An AccuWeather user highlighted this on social media.
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More than 100 times every year, AccuWeather has been documented as providing more accurate, more advance notification of significant and extreme weather events that impact businesses and threaten individuals' health, welfare, and lives. AccuWeather is proven to be the most accurate source of weather forecasts and warnings.
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