AccuWeather the Only Known Source to Consistently and Most Accurately Predict Francine’s Louisiana Landfall as a Category 2 Hurricane
AccuWeather Issues First Forecast for Francine 24 hours Before Any Other Known Source
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Meteorologist Tony Laubach and Ed Grubb track Hurricane Francine as residents ride out and clean up in its wake.
On Sept. 7, AccuWeather issued a track and intensity forecast 24 hours BEFORE the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and all other known sources issued their first track and intensity forecast.
Hurricane Francine caused significant flash flooding and widespread power outages across Louisiana, including in New Orleans, where 78 mph wind gusts were reported with around 8 inches of rain. As was the case with Beryl and Debby earlier in the season, AccuWeather customers once again exclusively benefited from this extra advance notice, enabling them to make the best decisions in preparation for the storm's impacts.
AccuWeather was the ONLY source that consistently and most accurately predicted Francine would be a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale at landfall.
• AccuWeather's first intensity and track forecast was issued on Sept. 7, while an area of rain and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche had not yet developed into an organized tropical storm. This exclusive track forecast provided 24 hours of additional advanced notice ahead of the NHC and all other known sources. Recognizing the potential impacts to lives and property, AccuWeather began referring to this as a tropical rainstorm and correctly predicted it would intensify into a tropical storm and then hurricane before making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday, Sept. 11. The additional day of valuable advance notice exclusively provided AccuWeather customers with more time to best prepare for and react to the risks posed by Francine.
• AccuWeather was most accurate in predicting Francine would strengthen and make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. No other known source, including the NHC, consistently predicted this. The NHC and other known sources flip-flopped on Francine's predicted peak intensity – twice predicting a Category 2 before dropping it back to a Category 1. AccuWeather's consistent and more accurate forecast provided AccuWeather customers with a consistent message of the threats posed by the storm, enabling them to prepare best.
Better Prepare Your Business with AccuWeather's Hurricane Warning Service. Contact AccuWeather immediately to learn more.
• AccuWeather’s exclusive AssetReport™ enabled business customers to automatically identify specific assets at risk and critical location-specific details such as how much rain, wind, and storm surge was expected at each asset. Additionally, these hazard areas can be displayed on interactive maps within the AccuWeather For Business Portal, enabling quick identification of impacted locations, supply chain, business continuity, and supply chain concerns.
• 30 hours BEFORE the National Hurricane Center and all other known sources, AccuWeather exclusively issued its first storm surge forecast for this storm along the Upper Gulf Coast. This was issued more than a day before the National Hurricane Center even recognized Francine as a named system!
• As a result of AccuWeather exclusively issuing its seven-day track and intensity forecasts well in advance of the NHC's five-day track and intensity forecasts, AccuWeather provided on average 24 hours more advance notice on the forecast location and intensity Francine than the NHC and all other known sources.
• AccuWeather's average Louisiana landfall forecast intensity was 40% more accurate than the NHC.
• AccuWeather's forecasts for New Orleans sooner predicted the significant impacts and were more accurate than any other known source. AccuWeather correctly predicted 60-80 mph wind gusts, 4-8" of rain, widespread power outages, and flooding.
• AccuWeather better described the flooding risk in New Orleans than The Weather Channel, which only predicted "showers in the evening" on Wednesday night when, in fact, significant flooding occurred across the city – just as AccuWeather predicted.
AccuWeather Forecast for New Orleans Issued on Tuesday:
• Wednesday: Hurricane Francine will approach with increasing winds and rain; there can be flooding, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
• Wednesday Night: Hurricane Francine will move away; winds will diminish late, and rain will taper to showers; there can be flooding, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.
The Weather Channel Forecast for New Orleans Issued on Tuesday:
• Wednesday: Tropical Storm conditions likely. Windy with rain. Thunderstorms possible.
• Wednesday Night: Tropical storm conditions likely. Showers in the evening, then cloudy and windy overnight.
Also on Tuesday, AccuWeather most accurately forecast wind gusts of 60-80 mph in New Orleans, while the National Weather Service only predicted winds of "20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph." At the same time, Apple's Weather app only predicted winds of "9 to 28 mph, with gusts up to 49 mph," greatly under-forecasting the dangerous winds.
• AccuWeather's forecast of the storm's winds averaged 1.3% more accurate as compared to the NHC.
More than 100 times every year, AccuWeather has been documented to provide more accurate, more advanced notification of significant and extreme weather events that impact business and threaten individuals' health, welfare, and lives. AccuWeather is proven to be the most accurate source of weather forecasts and warnings.
These are additional examples of the many weather events for which AccuWeather provided superior forecasts and impact descriptions to people, communities, and businesses, helping them better prepare and stay safe.
Better Prepare Your Business with AccuWeather's Hurricane Warning Service. Contact AccuWeather immediately to learn more.
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