Long Range Computer Model Outlook for Spring and Summer
The new ECMWF seasonal forecast, which updates once a month is now released on the 8th of each month.
The model continues to forecast above normal temperatures across much of the eastern two-thirds of North America from the upcoming Spring and right into the summer, though it shows near-normal temperatures for the Northeast U.S. and most of eastern Canada this summer.
One other thing that was striking is that the model steadily weakens the La Nina this Spring and trends toward a weak El Nino later in the summer. Keep in mind, even if this happens, there is a lag effect and so the overall atmosphere could still have the look of a La Nina through the Spring and not show any influence from a weak El Nino until the end of the year or next year.
Also, the model is forecasting a busy hurricane/typhoon season for the central and western Pacific region, while a drier, quieter season is indicated for the Atlantic basin.
ECMWF Spring 2012 forecast interpretation.
ECMWF Summer 2012 forecast interpretation.
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I will post my own forecast for this Spring on Monday.
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