The new ECMWF model seasonal forecast was just released yesterday to our in-house system. The long-range model now goes out to the November/December/January period.
1. The model is predicting moderate El Nino conditions to develop late this summer and fall and persist into the winter, but not strengthening.
2. The model continues to show slightly below-normal tropical activity for the Atlantic Basin through the fall.
3. The model appears to favor a tendency toward a positive NAO late fall into early winter. Here is a great link that explains the NAO phases and impacts.
Here is my interpretation of what the model is forecasting for North America......
If you have a quick question about this model forecast, feel free to drop me an EMAIL
You can also follow me on my twitter @BrettAWX
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There are growing indications that the stratosphere over the north pole may experience a major warming event in about 10 days.
Major thaw for the East later next week, but winter may make a comeback toward the end of the month and into early February.
The weather pattern will undergo a significant change across Canada and the U.S. by next week.
The storm that will bring a rare, heavy snowfall to the Carolinas and Virginia tonight into early Saturday will intensify as it moves out over the Atlantic waters on Saturday. This will set the stage for a quick-hitting snowstorm centered over Nova Scotia later Saturday into early Sunday.
Major winter storm to impact eastern Quebec and northern New Brunswick late Thursday through midday Friday.