The new ECMWF model seasonal forecast was just released yesterday to our in-house system. The long-range model now goes out to the November/December/January period.
1. The model is predicting moderate El Nino conditions to develop late this summer and fall and persist into the winter, but not strengthening.
2. The model continues to show slightly below-normal tropical activity for the Atlantic Basin through the fall.
3. The model appears to favor a tendency toward a positive NAO late fall into early winter. Here is a great link that explains the NAO phases and impacts.
Here is my interpretation of what the model is forecasting for North America......
If you have a quick question about this model forecast, feel free to drop me an EMAIL
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Some forecast model clues through the end of August and an update on global sea surface temperatures.
Tornado threat into Tuesday from southeastern Saskatchewan to northwest Ontario.
Latest weekly clues to the long range forecast through mid-August.
Major storm for the Prairies early next week could bring heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms.
Severe thunderstorm threat later Thursday and a general look at the upcoming weather pattern.
Latest long-range update and a look at global ocean temperatures.