The new ECMWF model seasonal forecast was just released yesterday to our in-house system. The long-range model now goes out to the November/December/January period.
1. The model is predicting moderate El Nino conditions to develop late this summer and fall and persist into the winter, but not strengthening.
2. The model continues to show slightly below-normal tropical activity for the Atlantic Basin through the fall.
3. The model appears to favor a tendency toward a positive NAO late fall into early winter. Here is a great link that explains the NAO phases and impacts.
Here is my interpretation of what the model is forecasting for North America......
If you have a quick question about this model forecast, feel free to drop me an EMAIL
You can also follow me on my twitter @BrettAWX
Heavy rain and possible flooding for parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan from Tuesday night through Wednesday.....
Updated look at the long-range and potential El Nino later this year.
Back from Toronto and the snow....
Weekly long range update into the second week of May....
The seasonal updates of the ECMWF and the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been released with monthly outlooks for temperature and precipitation.
Update on the long range through early May.