The new ECMWF model seasonal forecast was just released yesterday to our in-house system. The long-range model now goes out to the November/December/January period.
1. The model is predicting moderate El Nino conditions to develop late this summer and fall and persist into the winter, but not strengthening.
2. The model continues to show slightly below-normal tropical activity for the Atlantic Basin through the fall.
3. The model appears to favor a tendency toward a positive NAO late fall into early winter. Here is a great link that explains the NAO phases and impacts.
Here is my interpretation of what the model is forecasting for North America......
If you have a quick question about this model forecast, feel free to drop me an EMAIL
You can also follow me on my twitter @BrettAWX
We have potential severe weather in the East this evening and the potential for heavy rainfall Thursday and Friday for parts of Alberta.
Potential for strong thunderstorms again Wednesday.
The Accuweather.com summer forecast for Canada.
Rainy period for the northern Plains and parts of Manitoba and Ontario this weekend and early next week....
The Spring of 2013 so far has been off to a much different start across Canada compared to last year's Spring.
Here is the latest ECMWF long-range forecast model update.....