The new ECMWF model seasonal forecast was just released yesterday to our in-house system. The long-range model now goes out to the November/December/January period.
1. The model is predicting moderate El Nino conditions to develop late this summer and fall and persist into the winter, but not strengthening.
2. The model continues to show slightly below-normal tropical activity for the Atlantic Basin through the fall.
3. The model appears to favor a tendency toward a positive NAO late fall into early winter. Here is a great link that explains the NAO phases and impacts.
Here is my interpretation of what the model is forecasting for North America......
If you have a quick question about this model forecast, feel free to drop me an EMAIL
You can also follow me on my twitter @BrettAWX
Updated storm snowfall forecast map for Atlantic Canada for the storm today into early Saturday.
Storm snowfall forecast map for Friday into early Saturday over Atlantic Canada.
Stormy pattern shaping up for Atlantic Canada.
An update on the wintry mix coming into parts of eastern Canada tonight into Wednesday.
My latest interpretation of the weekly European forecast model through the month of February.
Blizzard conditions late Friday into early Saturday across parts of Atlantic Canada.