The new ECMWF model seasonal forecast was just released yesterday to our in-house system. The long-range model now goes out to the November/December/January period.
1. The model is predicting moderate El Nino conditions to develop late this summer and fall and persist into the winter, but not strengthening.
2. The model continues to show slightly below-normal tropical activity for the Atlantic Basin through the fall.
3. The model appears to favor a tendency toward a positive NAO late fall into early winter. Here is a great link that explains the NAO phases and impacts.
Here is my interpretation of what the model is forecasting for North America......
If you have a quick question about this model forecast, feel free to drop me an EMAIL
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Plenty of cold to talk about and a wintry mess late in the weekend and early next week in the East.
Here are the latest unofficial storm snowfall reports out of British Columbia and Alberta
The combination of snow, strong winds and very low temperatures is making for some tough travel across southwestern Canada.
Initial snow forecast map for the West...
This is may latest interpretation of the ECMWF weekly long-range model.
Update on storm totals in terms of wind, rain and snow.....